Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Sep 23 18:58:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These versions tend to be slightly worse for Collins, FWIW. We'll also be doing this for the presidential race, but it doesn't make much difference there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Couple small model notes: 1. In Maine, which has ranked choice voting, the model will now prefer to use the versions of the polls that show the results after second choices are accounted for. (Before, we had been averaging the pre- and post-reallocation versions together.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. We've spent more time estimating the relationship between congressional and presidential voting and will now assume a stronger correlation than before. This makes little difference to the topline but will allow us to explore more scenarios, e.g. the chance of a D trifecta. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 23, 2020 Hibernated