Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Some of those states allow ballots to be processed *during* Election Day though. Anyway, it's going to vary from state to state (and perhaps county to county) but there will be plenty of places where mail votes are counted (i) first or (ii) simultaneously. https://t.co/LSf4mdlC1V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 No... because there are a lot of independent or third party voters there too. Returns are 16% Republican and requests are 18% Republican. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But if Democrats return their ballots sooner, the late shift could be mitigated or even reversed. There's maybe the slightest hint of that already in North Carolina, where Democrats represent 49% of absentee ballot *requests* but 54% of ballots *returned* so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In most states, mail ballots received by Election Day will be counted with other ballots on election day; in some states they'll even be counted first, in fact. It's ballots postmarked by E-Day but not yet received (allowed in some states but not all) that can cause a late shift. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing Democrats could do—with basically no strategic downside—is to hammer home the message that voters should ask for and return their mail ballots as early as possible, which makes it more likely they'll be included in tallies on election night. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're at a weird moment where—amid understandable concern that Trump could steal or delegitimize a close election—people seem to have forgotten both that the most likely outcome is a fairly emphatic Biden win *and* that Trump has a decent chance (20-25%) to win legitimately. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: We’ve identified 12 polls that have asked some version of “Should Ginsburg’s seat be filled this year by Trump, or nex… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: Exactly. It is not up to him. If he loses the election, the message from everyone should be unequivocal that Jan. 20 is h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Quite a few mediocre polls for Biden in Arizona lately, which has brought his lead there down to 3.3 points. https://t.co/AniJJXutqh https://t.co/rI9qezkoIt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More than half of Trump's wins now involve winning the Electoral College but not the popular vote. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/AVOmoC4aUY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In a sign of how boring and stable our forecast has been this year, only two states have "flipped" at any point... Ohio and North Carolina have gone back and forth a couple of times. Biden is also now favored in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, when Trump was favored before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Indeed, if you look at our current forecast in each state (treating it as a binary rather than probabilistic) it's VERY close to Obama's 2008 map, with Biden adding AZ but losing IA and IN (and Iowa is very competitive). https://t.co/0P32HvOLgq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's worth keeping in mind. On the other hand, it's not that hard to imagine a lot of Obama-Trump voters flipping back to Obama's VP. Especially because a lot of them didn't particularly like Trump but weren't fans of Hillary either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah Biden now just a tiny tiny bit ahead in our Ohio average. Also a tiny bit ahead in our forecast there, though that's even closer. https://t.co/MRNr7sYlzk https://t.co/Gqz0BnNkPi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Fox News has consistently shown some of Biden's best state polls. These are three fairly important states, too: PA is the most likely tipping point, NV hasn't been polled much, and Biden will likely pull ahead in our OH polling average with this poll. https://t.co/x15y2grZd0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ClareMalone: Pod today on Trump & his unwillingness to guarantee a peaceful transfer of power. Think it was a pretty interesting discu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You could also have states where some mail ballots are counted ahead of time, giving Biden a big lead early in the PM, then Election Day votes are counted, swinging the race to Trump later, then late-arriving mail votes are counted, swinging it back to Biden a couple days later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Then there are some further complications around early in-person votes and provisional ballots. Many states will have a "blue shift" but some could have a "red shift" instead. In general, it will just be pretty weird. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, there's going to be a lot of variability from state to state, depending on whether 1) mail ballots must be RECEIVED by Election Day or merely postmarked by Election Day and 2) whether states count mail votes before/after/simultaneously with in-person votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

With Biden getting some strong polls in the Midwest over the past few days but some mediocre ones in TX/AZ, we're starting to get a clearer signal that his gains relative to Clinton are mostly among white working-class voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* I know that's a slightly strawman-ish formulation. Few places in the world are truly "locked down" right now, etc. But my observation is that US-based public health experts slightly overestimate the public's tolerance for refraining from in-person social contact. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be waiting longer for a vaccine we're more certain is effective is "worth it", especially if it helps to facilitate public trust. But I wouldn't bank on "we can just count on social distancing for another X months in early/mid 2021*" as necessarily being viable. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The contribution I'd make as an outsider/observer of political behavior is that it seems clear patience with lockdowns and social distancing is wearing thin, in the US and (perhaps even more so) globally, and it may be even thinner after what could be a difficult winter. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing debates about different strategies for testing vaccine efficacy, some of which would result in quicker but less comprehensive readouts than others. (Note: None of the experts are saying we should compromise on safety; this is all about how we measure efficacy.) 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner That's from June — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @davidshor: @jbarro @NateSilver538 If you absolutely know you’re going to vote and can vote in person you should, but if you otherwise w… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is another reason why people need to think carefully when writing about the chance that Trump will steal the election. IMO, there is a legitimate threat. However, the threat itself can be used to create ambiguity and sew doubt about the outcome, and possibly reduce turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, state polls have been a bit better than national polls for Biden, implying about an 8-point popular vote win. Although, Biden's margin in our national polling average has bounced back up to 7.4 points; there was a bigger gap a week or two ago. https://t.co/zNA6qbibgm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other news, here's a bit from me on what you can learn about the *national* race from state polls: https://t.co/L7bcUHUGzv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another question is whether Democrats recommend that their voters vote by mail. You've started to see some pundits recommend against it because of Trump. But political operatives in both parties usually encourage it as it tends to boost turnout. https://t.co/sMIIDgB2lI — PolitiTweet.org