Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah I'd be happy to continue to recommend or require mask wearing in some situations (e.g. transit) until we've truly achieved herd immunity. I just don't think masks are that much of a burden compared to lockdowns etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's gonna be a while before we've had a chance to vaccinate everyone who wants one. But once that's happened I'm going to be vehemently against any lockdowns, restrictions on association, etc. If you've turned down the chance to protect yourself and others, the burden is on you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly one reason for some guarded optimism is that everybody may be 20% less insane once the pandemic is over. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah... the fundamental part of our model had Collins as a fairly strong favorite here. She's won reelection by a big margin several times. And she really is pretty moderate (voted against Trump ~50% of the time) which puts her in a much different bucket than say Cory Gardner. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JHWeissmann I also think it's important to evaluate one's priors in light of new information. If you're someone who was very worried about the Supreme Court, and you haven't revised your priors *at all*, I don't particularly want you in the bunker if democracy is under threat. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JHWeissmann I think it's pretty darn important to distinguish between lower probability events and higher probability events. I think doing so helps society makes better decisions and think through important problems more clearly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JHWeissmann There were also very few late-arriving ballots in the primary in PA (around ~1% of all mail ballots or something like 0.3% of all ballots period) when there were no such concerns. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But to deny that there were some bad liberal takes about the Supreme Court is pretty close to gaslighting at this point. And it's not going to help us to see the situation clearly at a time when we need to see the situation clearly because our democracy is under threat. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to take the position that the election aftermath went even worse than expected in some ways, but better than expected in other ways—including the Supreme Court—that seems reasonable and prudent! It's imperative to take stock of what happened. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When I pointed out though that yes the Supreme Court could determine the result in a *very* close election but it would likely have to be very close indeed under certain specific scenarios, I got yelled at on this platform for not taking the chances seriously enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The chances that the election would be close enough that late-arriving ballots in PA would be enough to change the overall outcome was maybe something like 0.5% or 1%. (There were not many of these ballots.) So if that's what people were concerned about, it was overblown. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's neither on Christmas nor a star but this is still sort of cool https://t.co/vi9BSYmeLj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure what the market equilibrium looks like under conditions of epistemic closure where idiots are more confident in their beliefs than nonidiots. In the long run the idiots go broke but elections don't happen often enough to ever really reach the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Important to keep in mind that these mispricings are mostly not explained by technical factors and mostly are explained by the fact that Trump traders at PredictIt are literally idiots with money to burn. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think it's sort of in the uncanny valley (pun somewhat intended) where it's too close to SF to really have developed much of a cultural identity of its own but also not really that close at all once you consider commuting times & middling-at-best transit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I lived in Palo Alto for a year as a kid and, yeah, all of this. Lots to like in other parts of the Bay Area though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner If the *substance* of this is neutral or good (e.g. it's just cutting out red tape so people can be vaccinated faster) then describing the *optics* as bad undermines public faith in the vaccine for no reason. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner Some of this is a little circular, though. You have a lot of journalists declaring that the optics look bad, even though there's no evidence of how trying to expedite this last step is compromising safety in any way whatsoever. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm interested in the debate here—whether to initially give people one dose instead of two—but I'd note the choice doesn't have to be binary. You could give the high-risk population 2 doses as planned then use that time to do a trial before the rollout to the general population. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon @GarettJones Yes. The WaPo story referred to the final steps as "complete the paperwork needed for the authorization". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon @GarettJones Is there evidence that this delay had anything to do with "epidemiological complexities" as opposed to red tape? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Would they do it in less clumsy, ham-fisted ways that wouldn't yield a leak to the Washington Post? Probably, yeah. But i don't think it's "politicizing" the process to try to eliminate unnecessary delays. And sometimes politics involves using a little leverage. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The vaccine is safe and effective, there's this—as far as I can tell—largely unnecessary 2-day delay at a time when 3,000 people are dying a day. I think a lot of presidents, including President-Elect Biden, would try to put some pressure on people to expedite that process. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Proof once again that Biden has better political instincts than 98% of people on Twitter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I'm glad you wrote this take so I didn't have to. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @WesPegden: @NateSilver538 It's pretty bold to lump together the categories "household" and "social gatherings". It lets them make a po… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other words, household and social contacts might represent 74% of **known sources** of exposure, but that's potentially very different from their representing 74% of exposures. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure I entirely buy this data. The issue is that if you caught COVID at home or from a friend, you'll know that contact also got COVID and so can identify the source of exposure. But if you caught it from another patron at, say, a restaurant, you likely wouldn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin @PCJADC @seanschuerman In a divided field? Sure, although hampered a bit by the fact that it's hard to change your party registration in NY state. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Bloomberg voters — PolitiTweet.org