Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure what the market equilibrium looks like under conditions of epistemic closure where idiots are more confident in their beliefs than nonidiots. In the long run the idiots go broke but elections don't happen often enough to ever really reach the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The chances that the election would be close enough that late-arriving ballots in PA would be enough to change the overall outcome was maybe something like 0.5% or 1%. (There were not many of these ballots.) So if that's what people were concerned about, it was overblown. — PolitiTweet.org