Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sat Dec 12 16:47:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JHWeissmann I also think it's important to evaluate one's priors in light of new information. If you're someone who was very worried about the Supreme Court, and you haven't revised your priors *at all*, I don't particularly want you in the bunker if democracy is under threat. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JHWeissmann I think it's pretty darn important to distinguish between lower probability events and higher probability events. I think doing so helps society makes better decisions and think through important problems more clearly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah... the fundamental part of our model had Collins as a fairly strong favorite here. She's won reelection by a big margin several times. And she really is pretty moderate (voted against Trump ~50% of the time) which puts her in a much different bucket than say Cory Gardner. — PolitiTweet.org

Seeing a lot of hot takes about Sara Gideon’s loss to Susan Collins. We can argue all day about message tactics and… https://t.co/F5OI56pibo

Posted Dec. 12, 2020