Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sat Dec 12 00:27:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Important to keep in mind that these mispricings are mostly not explained by technical factors and mostly are explained by the fact that Trump traders at PredictIt are literally idiots with money to burn. — PolitiTweet.org

Did the Trump money on ⁦@PredictIt⁩ really think SCOTUS was going to invalidate the whole thing? Wild https://t.co/qTebTDrRfp

Posted Dec. 12, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I think it's sort of in the uncanny valley (pun somewhat intended) where it's too close to SF to really have developed much of a cultural identity of its own but also not really that close at all once you consider commuting times & middling-at-best transit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 11, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure what the market equilibrium looks like under conditions of epistemic closure where idiots are more confident in their beliefs than nonidiots. In the long run the idiots go broke but elections don't happen often enough to ever really reach the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 12, 2020