Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Dereklowe Thank you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie And is this the sort of thing that could become commercially available, at scale (e.g. walk into CityMD?). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Dereklowe: @NateSilver538 Yes. The vaccine gives you antibodies for the S (spike) protein, but the tests can distinguish antibodies to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 Yes. Nucleocapsid protein antibodies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I have a weird question for the actual experts on here. Is there some way after the fact to know if you had a COVID infection if you *also* had antibodies from having been vaccinated? That is, can a test distinguish vaccine-acquired and naturally-acquired antibodies? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A couple of additional notes: https://t.co/WJF0CO5SJS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@richardmskinner I think vaccine mandates get nearly all of the As and the Bs, and some of the Cs may tolerate them in certain circumstances. So that's consistent with say 50-70% in favor of mandates, depending on the specifics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not a super-easy climate for politicians to navigate. The "smart" play is probably to do what Group B wants, but you may still wind up with various people in the other groups mad at you for all sorts of different reasons. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you look at public opinion on COVID-related restrictions right now, it probably breaks down roughly into these 5 groups: https://t.co/7CO1OIQI8H — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved A lot of the long COVID studies I've seen make me want to take out a highlighter pen and scream "WTF": there are few controls and lots of confounders they don't account for. With that said the UK populationwide surveys provide some reasonable bounds: https://t.co/j68wf4O6rI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's 70% very understandable trauma from prior waves and 30% crappy media coverage. The real-world data showing much lower fatality rates in the UK (and to a slightly lesser extent the US/EU) b/c of vaccines is extremely good and important news but hasn't gotten much attention. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So that's what happens when you vaccinate a very large percentage of your elderly population, as the UK has. We won't do quite as well in the US, although with 90% age 65+ partly vaccinated and 80% fully vaccinated, that will still help a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since not all cases are detected, the case fatality rate is an overestimate of the *infection* fatality rate. Data from the ONS implies perhaps 1 in every 2.5 or 3 infections are being detected in the UK, which means the IFR is in the vicinity of 0.1%. https://t.co/5bjFFikltS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID deaths have begun to flatten out in the UK, on schedule with when you'd expect them to based on an earlier decline in cases. Assuming a ~20-day lag between cases and deaths, the case fatality rate is something like 0.2-0.3%, as compared with ~2% during the Alpha wave. https://t.co/cuTQ3DemJw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom You've routinely tried to dunk on me for lots of incredibly minor and random and tangential posts so you clearly seem to be aware of what I'm saying re: COVID. Anyway it doesn't really matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@CT_Bergstrom It's no prob because I'm glad it's getting more visibility but you're kind of stealing this take from me. https://t.co/mqMzD84Onh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@katherinemiller @AsteadWesley Looking forward to firing off a good tweet from the Cedar Falls Pizza Ranch after the Lauren Boebert rally while one of you walks into the booth across the room and I pretend not to recognize you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred @ZoeMcLaren I think e.g. the Tyson Foods thing is encouraging. All of the high-prestige blue-state companies will require vaccines sooner if not later but most of their employees are vaccinated anyway. If the big employers in red/purple states do too that will help. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren You can chip away a lot at the margins through federal & local governments, the military, colleges & universities, major employers? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie @GovNedLamont NYC (after a disastrous March 2020) has generally been good too. Never any silly outdoor closures, proportionate responses, lots of creative ways to try to get people vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I think you're one of the people who *has* made that clear. But I don't think that's necessarily been enough of an emphasis of health messaging overall, or say the messaging from some Democratic mayors/governors/etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Weirdly enough the position "getting back to normal is good" will sometimes get you branded as a contrarian. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Already worrying about the Omicron Variant which doesn't exist yet just to stay ahead of the curve. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@apoorva_nyc @donnellymjd @dzeitzoff That's fine, but many experts have strongly pushed back against the article's interpretation of the study and other recent Delta news. Maybe you didn't hear from those experts by deadline, that can happen, but that's what follow-up stories are for. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @apoorva_nyc @dzeitzoff The NYT story made much bolder claims than the study itself did *and* left out important caveats that the study authors highlighted. If the NYT story had reflected the tone and substance of the study, we wouldn't be having this conversation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @apoorva_nyc @dzeitzoff You've highlighted a policy recommendation, which one could argue about given the uncertain evidence. But the authors make no claim that vaccinated breakthroughs transmit just as easily. Instead they make the more modest claim that they *might* have similar viral loads. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @apoorva_nyc @dzeitzoff That's not correct. The study authors said *viral loads* *might* be similar. They did *not* make any claims about *transmission*. It's a big leap from viral loads -> transmission. The study also included many caveats that did not appear in the NYT story. https://t.co/jF3BO94oh0 https://t.co/lcsdLtGiRY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @apoorva_nyc @dzeitzoff In addition to the statistical issues I've outlined, many experts think that Ct values are a poor proxy for transmissibility and the study certainly does not provide any sort of clinical proof of how often vaccinated people are transmitting. https://t.co/vsiLSH6RN4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @apoorva_nyc @dzeitzoff Also, it's not a 100% accurate description of the research. It is a *highly* debatable conclusion. All the research found is that vaccinated and unvaccinated people who tested positive did not have statistically distinguishable Ct values over a small, non-representative sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@donnellymjd @apoorva_nyc @dzeitzoff I'm not missing it at all. It's a very important qualification. It's important enough, in fact, that it renders the apocalyptic tone of the article completely incongruent, which may be why Times *readers* clearly missed it. — PolitiTweet.org