Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 16, 2021

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Thu Aug 05 11:28:44 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Since not all cases are detected, the case fatality rate is an overestimate of the *infection* fatality rate. Data from the ONS implies perhaps 1 in every 2.5 or 3 infections are being detected in the UK, which means the IFR is in the vicinity of 0.1%. https://t.co/5bjFFikltS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID deaths have begun to flatten out in the UK, on schedule with when you'd expect them to based on an earlier decline in cases. Assuming a ~20-day lag between cases and deaths, the case fatality rate is something like 0.2-0.3%, as compared with ~2% during the Alpha wave. https://t.co/cuTQ3DemJw — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So that's what happens when you vaccinate a very large percentage of your elderly population, as the UK has. We won't do quite as well in the US, although with 90% age 65+ partly vaccinated and 80% fully vaccinated, that will still help a lot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2021