Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@POLITICO_Steve Given CO’s competitiveness criteria, a new Biden +9 district was probably the best Dems could hope for (although CO Dems are trying to work the refs that it’s good for Rs). A more accurate headline: the new map could boost Dems chances of *keeping* the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@POLITICO_Steve It *could* be 4-4 if Rs win a Biden +9 seat in an upset, but implying that kind of seat is a boon to the GOP is a huge stretch — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ally’s coverage of redistricting has been terrific, but I’d disagree that the effective creation of a new Biden +9 district would boost GOP odds of taking back the House. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, these estimates are *not* the same as @CookPolitical PVI. We'd likely have the new #CO07 leaning D for a 5D-3R overall split. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Timodc We don’t publish @CookPolitical PVI for prospective districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Timodc How is a Biden +9 district a Lean R seat? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Democrats would be pretty happy with this new #CO08. But we’ll have to wait until we see the finished product. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@sethfri Wiley, Yang and ballot exhaustion — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mattyglesias: Not as covered as the NYC race, but socialists scored a big win in a Buffalo election where only 20,000 people voted. It… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, there is! The basic approach is to use a slightly lower confidence interval than others might. Even at a higher confidence interval, the AP has been wrong a handful of times. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are three reasons I’m up to ~95% on Adams: 1) Bronx is likely underreported 2) ballot exhaustion in later rounds should help him quite a bit 3) voters’ approach to the contest likely a lot less ideological than media/Twitter framing — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Logicornotlogic @baseballot Thanks, I had no idea! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, there are ~100k absentees that are likely to favor Garcia, but to my eye there could also be ~30k unreported votes in the Bronx, where Adams has an enormous lead (h/t @baseballot). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This would be an accurate headline if “fragile” were replaced with “virtually insurmountable” https://t.co/Nie2eo3ZrD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: it’s going to be a very sizable deficit for Garcia or Wiley to make up. And I don’t really buy the narrative that there’s huge later-round ideological antipathy towards Adams. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Absentees will disproportionately come from pro-Garcia areas. That’s why it’s pretty great news for Adams that he’s running 9 pts ahead of Wiley but 11 pts ahead of Garcia right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @baseballot: Very clear political battle lines tonight. Adams won Black and Hispanic voters in the outer boroughs. Wiley won Brooklyn/Qu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The Democratic Electorate on Twitter Is Not the Actual Democratic Electorate https://t.co/kBGZMYSwyW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Media & this site obsess over ideology (left vs. center, etc.). Meanwhile, actual voters are looking at their choice through a different lens: elite vs. anti-elite. Explains how both AOC and Adams can dominate primaries in the Bronx w/ totally different positions. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Eric Adams has less than 2% of Andrew Yang’s Twitter followers and is on track to win more than twice as many votes in NYC. Lol — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m ~90% confident this thing is over. That’s not enough for an ISE (that’d be more like ~98%), but getting there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Eric Adams's lead has only expanded as more of the non-#AD52 portions of Brooklyn have reported. It's going to be tough for Garcia/Wiley to overcome, imo. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Losing candidates in NYC's RCV are going to be as angry as Staten Island being put in the same congressional district as Park Slope next year. #NY11 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Eric Adams in third place in Manhattan but leading in all four outer boroughs is a pretty promising recipe for success in a NYC mayoral primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, in my still-limited experience w/ RCV, leads of the size Eric Adams has now are pretty tough to overcome. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Andrew Yang will not be the next mayor of NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @sahilkapur: New @MonmouthPoll on VOTING -71% say make early voting easier (16% say make it harder) -50% say make mail voting easier (… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@kylegriffin1 https://t.co/xxLF9yXu0K — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RaeComm Hi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, I would add, this is why Dems' already-narrow path to holding the House majority depends on aggressively gerrymandering Illinois and New York. — PolitiTweet.org