Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2021

Created

Wed Jun 23 15:26:50 +0000 2021

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303

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Twitter for iPhone

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, there is! The basic approach is to use a slightly lower confidence interval than others might. Even at a higher confidence interval, the AP has been wrong a handful of times. — PolitiTweet.org

@Redistrict I didn't realize there is a 2% chance you're wrong after an I've seen enough.

Posted June 23, 2021

Preceded By

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are three reasons I’m up to ~95% on Adams: 1) Bronx is likely underreported 2) ballot exhaustion in later rounds should help him quite a bit 3) voters’ approach to the contest likely a lot less ideological than media/Twitter framing — PolitiTweet.org

I’m ~90% confident this thing is over. That’s not enough for an ISE (that’d be more like ~98%), but getting there.

Posted June 23, 2021

Followed By

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mattyglesias: Not as covered as the NYC race, but socialists scored a big win in a Buffalo election where only 20,000 people voted. It… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2021 Retweet