Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated No

Last Checked July 27, 2021

Created

Wed Jun 23 14:45:59 +0000 2021

Likes

709

Retweets

Source

Twitter for iPhone

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are three reasons I’m up to ~95% on Adams: 1) Bronx is likely underreported 2) ballot exhaustion in later rounds should help him quite a bit 3) voters’ approach to the contest likely a lot less ideological than media/Twitter framing — PolitiTweet.org

I’m ~90% confident this thing is over. That’s not enough for an ISE (that’d be more like ~98%), but getting there.

Posted June 23, 2021

Preceded By

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Logicornotlogic @baseballot Thanks, I had no idea! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 23, 2021

Followed By

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, there is! The basic approach is to use a slightly lower confidence interval than others might. Even at a higher confidence interval, the AP has been wrong a handful of times. — PolitiTweet.org

@Redistrict I didn't realize there is a 2% chance you're wrong after an I've seen enough.

Posted June 23, 2021