Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big theme/vibe of 2022: split-ticket voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A good summary by @AmyeWalter on the three most likely scenarios tonight. FWIW, I'm leaning towards a different one today than I was yesterday. https://t.co/MJZsOkToqB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In recent years, R voters have generally enjoyed their largest turnout advantage in the first 2-3 hours of EDay voting. So, it's possible these gaps will narrow - and these are just two states. But, these are just large differentials for Dems to overcome in the next few hours. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Noon turnout reports in VA Beach - a majority of Rep. Elaine Luria's (D) Toss Up #VA02 - show most heavily GOP precincts up to 55-60% of '21 votes cast, vs. 40-45% in most non-white precincts. Total ballots cast skewing much more R than '20 in many FL counties, esp. Miami-Dade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today - one that's unlikely to be solved in the next six hours. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IDK about bloodbath, but yeah, this isn't good for Dems in Miami. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And if you're still puzzled why Dems have suffered significant erosion since then, @crampell's latest walk down memory lane is a good recap: https://t.co/kEJTXE2xmN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: a big reason Rs are favored to retake Congress today is that Ds didn't start out from a great place to begin with. In 2020, Joe Biden faced a president w/ 53% disapproval and prevailed by just: 0.2% in GA 0.3% AZ 0.6% WI 1.2% PA 2.1% in the median House seat 2.4% NV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Elaijuh: Prepare for Philly’s vote count to take longer than we initially expected. Elections officials are poised to reinstate the la… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you were tasked w/ correctly predicting the NV Senate race and could only know one of the following two stats, which would you rather know? (I know what I'd pick.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The point is, it's possible Rs will pick up 30+ House seats. But if they do, it's likelier to be b/c polls/models undershot House Rs all along, not because there was some kind of last-minute surge (and, I'm still taking the under). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's a tendency for forecasters to get caught up in the doom/momentum narrative that takes hold late in a cycle when one party is ahead, and turn predicting gains into an arms race. But @FiveThirtyEight's empirical model shows virtually no movement either way since 10/21. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of note, @FiveThirtyEight's House forecast - which was closer to the result than most in 2020 - is a little more bearish on GOP gains (+17) than most prognosticators' midpoints. Why is that significant? (1/3) https://t.co/iroquHcBIm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FINAL @CookPolitical House ratings: 212 seats at least Lean R, 187 seats at least Lean D, 36 Toss Ups. Full analysis: https://t.co/nGRUaCMoef https://t.co/2Oyo2hdV1W — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Final @CookPolitical House outlook: an unusually uneven landscape, with a 15-30 seat GOP gain the likeliest outcome but a wide range of possibilities. https://t.co/nGRUaCMoef — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Personally, I’m not either. There are just a lot of really close races out there, and the lack of high quality public data relative to 2018 makes individual race predictions especially perilous. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: beware "spoiler" candidates in these five House races on Election Night. https://t.co/Ie4RNwEshX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'll be honest: some of these are pure guesses. And, it's more likely than not the Toss Up column will break hard in one direction. The dozen races I'm most "on the fence" about: #CA49, #CT05, #ME02, #MI07, #MN02, #NV01, #NH01, #NY19, #OH13, #PA08, #RI02 and #TX34. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's a lot of uncertainty in House, with 35 races in @CookPolitical's Toss Up column. But not all of them are alike. As promised, here are my guesses as of this moment on where they'll land (for reference, here are our full House ratings): https://t.co/mAdCOtLXHx https://t.co/byZ4h8hvOJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Plenty of Dem incumbents in red/purple states (including #AKAL, #IN01, #KS03, #ME02, #MI07, #MI08, #NV04, #OH09, #PA07, #PA08, #TX28, #VA02) continue to hang tough in a difficult environment, defying Biden’s approval. Whether that holds will determine magnitude of GOP gains. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s possible Tuesday could be a big GOP wave in both chambers, but tbh there’s not much high-quality data to support narrative the “bottom has fallen out” for House Ds. If anything, state fundamentals have moved the Senate outlook a notch closer to where the House already was. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Encouraging news for Dems in final @NBCNews poll: voting enthusiasm gap closes from 78%-69% pro-R to 73%-73%. But, biggest problem for Dems is still independents: just 28% approve of Biden and by 66%-28% say cost of living more important than abortion. https://t.co/tZpcBWgCf5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman @SAGE_Publishing congrats! well deserved — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A word of caution, though: at least in VA, the very first results reported are likely to favor Rs. Extra caution is warranted in #VA07, where Prince William Co.'s mail ballots are critical to Rep. Abigail Spanberger's (D) path to victory and could be the last to be counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's my rough thinking early on Election Night: - If #VA02 Luria (D) holds on, better night for Dems than expected - If #IN01 Mrvan (D) or #VA07 Spanberger (D) lose, Rs likely winning 20+ seats - If #NH02 Kuster (D) or #VA10 Wexton (D) lose, Rs likely winning 30+ seats — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I believe it's healthy to convey that uncertainty. That said, I also don't believe all our Toss Ups are alike. At some point before Tuesday I'll publish my best (semi-educated) guesses on where each of these Toss Ups will land, just as I did in 2018. So, stay tuned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've fully expected criticism for having 35 House races in Toss Up at @CookPolitical, and empathize to some extent. But guess what? There are just a lot of really close races this year - with higher uncertainty than past cycles as the reliability of polling has declined. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The inverse relationship between polling response rates/reliability and partisan wishcasting based on "vibes" isn't a perfect correlation, but feels especially strong this year. At least, that's the vibe I'm getting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SeanTrende: I can't believe I had to write this piece yet again. But seriously -- don't read the early voting tea leaves (unless you a… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: Our final Senate overview is out. We are changing our range of most likely outcomes to D+0 to R+3. Read @JessicaTaylor'… — PolitiTweet.org