Dave Wasserman

@Redistrict ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 6, 2022

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Tue Nov 08 02:21:03 +0000 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The point is, it's possible Rs will pick up 30+ House seats. But if they do, it's likelier to be b/c polls/models undershot House Rs all along, not because there was some kind of last-minute surge (and, I'm still taking the under). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's a tendency for forecasters to get caught up in the doom/momentum narrative that takes hold late in a cycle when one party is ahead, and turn predicting gains into an arms race. But @FiveThirtyEight's empirical model shows virtually no movement either way since 10/21. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022

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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you were tasked w/ correctly predicting the NV Senate race and could only know one of the following two stats, which would you rather know? (I know what I'd pick.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 8, 2022