Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

5) The asymmetry in modes of voting - Dems preferring mail and Trump voters set on in-person - creates additional and unique uncertainty, including potential for postal chicanery, voter error & rejected absentees that disproportionately hurt Dems. https://t.co/Jra4tGYwHq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

4) Polling suggests Trump's bonus in the Electoral College (relative to the popular vote) is at least as large as it was in '16 (2.9%) or potentially even larger. He could plausibly lose nationally by up to 5 points (!) and still win reelection. https://t.co/IR6Ovxhwdu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

3) At the moment, Trump is losing non-whites by a bit less than he lost them in '16. Whether this holds, who knows. But the voters Trump needs to improve with to get back in contention - non-college whites - supported him before and tend to live in Trump-friendly info ecosystems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

2) As 2016 showed us, as Trump amplifies/intensifies/just plain makes up his attacks on his opponents, the media tends to react in a way that #bothsides-es each nominee's liabilities - real or perceived - *potentially* bringing their favs/unfavs into closer alignment. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1) Voters have pretty short memories compared to analysts' priors. As more Americans get used to living in a pandemic, there is potential - not necessarily a likelihood, but potential - for the dominance of COVID-19 to ebb as voters' top issue and other issues to rise. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Without wading into the modeling wars - a debate I see as mostly fruitless - guess I'll try to summarize why I think the presidential race is more like "Lean Biden" (60%-75% range) than "Likely/Solid Biden" (90%+ range) as we head into the final night of the RNC... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @FandMPoll Pennsylvania showing Biden ahead 49%-42% also shows extreme divergence on intended voting mode: Democrats: 55%-42% mail/absentee Independents: 58%-29 in person Republicans: 84%-10% in person — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you think punditry is breathless now, just wait until October when we'll hear plenty of hot takes about what the massive Dem advantage in early/absentee voting portends for each state's outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PollsAndVotes: Public opinion of Black Lives Matter protests in Wisconsin, police behavior and related topics. This is a dry look at t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is beyond absurd. If @CookPolitical had a category safer than “Solid Democratic,” #FL21 would be in it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Amen. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The fact that it’s dwindling - and that Trump is performing horrendously w/ college whites - makes amping up non-college white turnout a prerequisite for Trump to have any chance. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Spoiler alert: the conventions aren't going to upend the race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@travishelwig @gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 I actually kinda wanna see more — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump's election in 2016 required a steady normalization of Trump's extremely abnormal candidacy. Trump's reelection in 2020 will require a steady normalization of an extremely abnormal pandemic toll. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all the gossip that Trump would replace him this time, Pence played a key role in Trump's normalization as a candidate in '16. The GOP voters most wary of Trump exiting the '16 primaries were social/evangelical conservatives. Pence helped build a permission structure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a pretty generic GOP speech by Pence - one that will comfort longtime party stalwarts. It's one reason he proved an effective counterbalance to Trump in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nathanlgonzales: A clearly armed white individual approached law enforcement, while people shouted that he shot someone, to the point w… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections @CollegeInsights The @CollegeInsights survey was of 4,000 college students, so I’d bet on an n of ~200 - not huge, but a much larger sample than other polls that have shown Biden weakness w/ this group. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The obvious explanation? The 1994 crime bill has exploded in public consciousness in the past few years and Biden, unlike Obama, was a driving force behind it. And while “you ain’t Black” likely didn’t change anyone’s vote, it didn’t help Biden’s effort to shore up his standing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

People scoffed at the importance of this at the time. But Biden's weakness w/ young Black men looks real, and it's… https://t.co/SbHaf9TE6A — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It boils down to this: Markey's strong w/ college graduates, while the Kennedy brand has historically been strongest w/ working-class Catholics. And today's MA Dem primary electorate is light years more college+ and less religious than it used to be. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Taniel overall state numbers — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, for anyone who might doubt this phenomenon of Trump-voting Dems, look no further than Robeson Co., which Trump carried 51%-47% in '16. Dems still hold a 57%-14% (!) registration lead there, down from 68%-12% at this point in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The better news for Dems is that NC's non-white share continues to increase, driven by Latinos and those who list race as "other." Still, registration trends aren't going to give us strong insights as to who will win NC, or any state, in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As we've seen in other states like FL/PA, North Carolina's Dem registration lead has shrunk. But that's mostly thanks to the shrinking numbers of white conservatives who still affiliate as Dems, many of whom voted for Trump in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NC's net voter registrations are up 3.3% so far this year, not far off the 3.6% growth at this point in 2016. August '16: 40% D, 30% R, 30% Unaffiliated/Other 70% White, 22% Black, 8% Other August '20: 36% D, 30% R, 34% Unaffiliated/Other 66% White, 21% Black, 13% Other — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: Biden's at only 55-60% to win in prediction markets, but 85-90% in other statistical models, which seems like an insanel… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, there's no guarantee that these white, non-college non-voters would support Trump at nearly the same rate as their peers who voted in '16. But this is precisely why there's no guarantee sky-high turnout will benefit Biden, particularly in the Midwestern battlegrounds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my estimate, in '16 non-college whites made up 50% of the nation's non-voters (vs. 44% of voters), including: 76% in Iowa 74% in Maine 71% in New Hampshire 68% in Ohio 66% in Pennsylvania 64% in Minnesota 63% in Wisconsin 62% in Michigan 54% in North Carolina — PolitiTweet.org