Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thread: one of the reasons I love covering House races is that analyzing things at a district level can reveal a lot of micro-trends before they show up nationally or even statewide... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChrisPack716 It wasn't so long ago Allen West won this district (tho Likely R means we still view Mast as the heavy favorite). #FL18 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah. Biden’s most effective argument is “Trump doesn’t understand you can’t get the economy/life back to normal unless you get the virus under control.” Not sure this ad connects those dots clearly or is the best use of 60 seconds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jbouie I don’t think they’re “disconnected from national news conversations” and never said they were. They’re simply likelier to get that news through a more right-wing lens - friends/neighbors’ Facebook feeds, talk radio, Fox, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sure, Bush branded Kerry a flip-flopper and Obama branded Romney a corporate robber baron. But when you're at a 41% approval rating, you've got to take it to a whole new extreme. And Biden is up against an incumbent who doesn't play by the rules. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tonight also a reminder of the extreme extent to which Trump is a "predator brand" (to paraphrase a GOP media consultant), w/ no hope of success without eviscerating opponents, even as an incumbent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In fact, it must be more of that three-dimensional chess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Accusing political opponents of "living in walled off compounds" while delivering a speech on WH grounds at a convention that featured the McCloskeys is an interesting strategy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Milwaukee Co. and Dane Co. (Madison) make up ~25% of WI's vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's too bad Trump is not charismatic (per Prof. Allan Lichtman's keys). That would seem to be an important trait for delivering a convention speech. https://t.co/XzNEKoVPJx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of all the RNC's many impressive production qualities, the most impressive might be that they appear to be broadcasting from the future, when the pandemic no longer exists. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@IChotiner Not so much that people don't understand it, more that people who argue the election is a virtual lock underestimate the power of it, esp. in swing states. Or NYT/WaPo op-ed writers who still believe their endorsements/editorials influence anyone's presidential vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump has never had a "silent majority," or even plurality. But this is what I mean by non-coastal/college-educated/metropolitan voters living in an alternative news/info ecosystem. Facebook benefits Trump. https://t.co/CFzNCGXYM2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Having a hard time believing Rudy Giuliani is younger than Anthony Fauci...and I'm not sure which one of them that says more about. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The RNC has likely set an all-time record for the amount of speaking time it's given to people of color, but it might be more effective w/ voters if it talked about what the GOP would do to end brutality and heal the country's rift. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Party-switching #NJ02 Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) might be more vulnerable now than he was last year as a Dem. Joe Kennedy III may now be the underdog in #MASEN, but his cousin's wife Amy Kennedy (D) is polling neck-and-neck vs. Van Drew in #NJ02. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: 65% of Wisconsin voters live in counties carried by Trump in '16 (despite Trump taking just 47% in WI). Most of those voters live in a news/info ecosystem that looks nothing like the one most Dems live in and is reacting to events in Kenosha far differently. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @geoffreyvs: Understandable take but it doesn't account for Biden's far higher overall support. Biden's around 50% in likeliest tipping… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: "Trump is trailing, not because he's losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it." @amyewalter's… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectionBabe it was an invitation to weigh in, so thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

cc: @ElectionBabe — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t get me wrong: I think I’d find it 10x more difficult to be a barista than a poll worker. That said, there is a fair amount of training that goes into making a good/competent poll worker, and doing that in person is just much harder right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One more thing: a lot of the factors I’ve listed are really hard to model/quantify! Especially using historical data that might not apply to recent trends. Which is why I’m cautious of people who are really confident their quant models are super well-calibrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another potential concern about 11/3 going smoothly: poll worker inexperience given unprecedented level of turnover (I'm serious). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Timodc No. If Biden flips MI, PA and #NE02, he'd be at 269-269, which goes to the House, where a majority of delegations are likely to be Republican. He needs something else (AZ, FL, WI, etc.) to get him over 270. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2016, @FiveThirtyEight's model gave Trump a 10.5% chance of winning the EC while losing the PV heading into election day - and frankly, I thought that was a bit low at the time. https://t.co/GIjxcNVFhi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn much closer to 75% than 60%. and if he were ahead by 8.5 pts w LVs on 11/1, i'd say 90-95% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, just as there was a uniquely high chance of Trump winning w/ fewer votes '16, today I believe there's a uniquely high chance (maybe 3-4%) of a 269-269 tie, w/ Biden carrying PA/MI/#NE02 and no other Trump '16 turf - a scenario the House would likely decide in Trump's favor. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, despite what the state polling averages say, I still view Biden's path of least resistance to 270 Electoral Votes as MI, #NE02, PA and *AZ,* rather than FL or WI - based on demographic patterns and what we saw from hard votes in '18. Admittedly, it's a really close call. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That said!! Biden's lead to date is clearly more *stable* than Clinton's was throughout '16, with fewer undecided/third party voters. I still view him as the favorite. And I'd welcome those tempted to label me as a "concern troll" to judge me by @CookPolitical's work in '18. — PolitiTweet.org