Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @jon_m_rob But here I'm simply going by whether a seat voted for Biden. On the nonpartisan map, there could easily be 4-6 seats where Clinton didn't get 50 and where the GOP could plausibly win in 2022. So national environment could have a big effect on whether Dems realize those gains — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @jon_m_rob returning to this: if TX drew the map that Wasserman drew yesterday, i'd guess the TX map alone could be worth 7 seats v. a results-blind nonpartisan commission, with the strength of partisan fairness criteria being key to mitigating GOP losses — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jon_m_rob if you meant the impact of DC/PR on the house, not the senate, the same story holds: 5 seats flipped due to redistricting is more important than 7 seats added in PR/DC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jon_m_rob fwiw i voted a net-10 seats (assuming counterfactual is post-redistricting), which yield Dems 2.3% of the House assuming DC/PR yield 4 Dem seats, you've only increased Dem share of the senate by 1.9%--since you're not taking anything away from the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @jon_m_rob but i'd be interested to see you tease out the likeliest flips (cincinnati, or whatever) from the gains that depend on subjective-to-taste choices (maybe the macomb ex. we went over) and substantive but maybe contested determinations (second VRA CDs in the south) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @jon_m_rob if you do something like that i'd be interested to see you go through and assign a probability that a commission would follow the path you've taken on some of the more uncertain but fundamental choices, granting that it's totally unknowable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BrettKelman: SCOOP: Tennessee Department of Health halts all vaccine outreach to kids – not just for COVID-19, but all diseases – amid… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, one could interpret the speech to only give lip-service to a legislative remedy, given the fate of the FTPA last month, and so perhaps that makes it less important whether any of the proposals meet the challenges he outlined — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden calls election subversion "the most dangerous threat to voting." But neither of the legislative vehicles mentioned by Biden--FPA and JLVRA--do very much to protect against it https://t.co/KaVILUi4kb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@yesh222 @de79dc lol that's not the counterfactual at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RealEric4Real @mattyglesias by 'everyone involved' i meant 'involved in infrastructure negotiations.' so it'd be good for the republicans trying to carve the political space for passage, but not those who want to kill the bill — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(another factor here is that the VRA limits the extent of GOP gerrymandering in TX to a far greater degree than it does in WI) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Conversely, in a state like WI, where geography is very friendly to the the GOP, a strong enough gerrymander can turn a lean Rep map into basically perpetual GOP control — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basically, the underlying political geography of Texas is very favorable to Democrats in redistricting. It's really a Democratic dream. As a consequence, the GOP gerrymandering basically turns what ought to be a lean Dem map into a tilt Rep map https://t.co/TM7XSw81y5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

the texas maps are already pretty fair by partisan fairness measures, despite being fairly brutal GOP gerrymanders! https://t.co/FQ0KxJ8H4E — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @jon_m_rob (most of the seats dems net out of texas aren't solid blue seats) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @jon_m_rob national political environment's kind of relevant too. a ton of those dem gains, imo, come out of texas. but if texas is an R+10 state in a midterm, they won't net nearly as many of these seats as they would in a neutral environment — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kabir_here @jon_m_rob idk, maybe 5 and 10? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We often talk about a D geographic disadvantage in redistricting, but the Ds have a big 'geographic' edge in Texas. A nonpartisan map would be very Dem friendly by partisan fairness measures https://t.co/7UiEm7t8rG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob net v. the status quo map, or v. the hypothetical map post-redistricting — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach @jon_m_rob Compared to doing nothing or compared to a more traditional leg strategy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach @jon_m_rob don't take this the wrong way, but i'm pretty astonished you think that! it'd get it if you thought HR1 was a gamble that was worth the risk, or it had certain benefits for messaging and coalition building that matter if you think essentially nothing is possible. but zero costs? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach i think that's probably true. i also think it's probably true that there are legislative costs to spending six months on a nonviable package, especially when that package yields few natural paths forward (and had substantive issues, too) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach i agree in a narrow sense: i don't think they left money on the table, as i don't think they had a winning card to play. they knew it, and chose not to push HR1 in a serious way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach which naturally explains the seemingly comical locus of the initial article: a harris announcement to spend 25 million on voter registration in response to a threat to democracy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach and in this case, there's a pretty clear link between a nonviable legislative strategy, a subsequent activist focus on mobilizing public attention to overcome legislative inertia, and now an administration effort to mount a show of defending voting rights without doing anything — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach it mainly follows from the elite-level theory, on the usual assumption that public interest in non-material, arcane issues is dependent elite attention — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JakeMGrumbach seems totally zero-sum tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf that could be an explanation but i don't think it's a strategy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But most of those fervent HR1 supporters who don't see the urgency on voter suppression *do* see great urgency on structural bias issues, and especially gerrymandering, which has basically been absent from the public debate — PolitiTweet.org