Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked July 13, 2021

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Tue Jul 13 21:10:17 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @jon_m_rob but i'd be interested to see you tease out the likeliest flips (cincinnati, or whatever) from the gains that depend on subjective-to-taste choices (maybe the macomb ex. we went over) and substantive but maybe contested determinations (second VRA CDs in the south) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 13, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf @jon_m_rob if you do something like that i'd be interested to see you go through and assign a probability that a commission would follow the path you've taken on some of the more uncertain but fundamental choices, granting that it's totally unknowable — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 13, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias @jon_m_rob fwiw i voted a net-10 seats (assuming counterfactual is post-redistricting), which yield Dems 2.3% of the House assuming DC/PR yield 4 Dem seats, you've only increased Dem share of the senate by 1.9%--since you're not taking anything away from the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 14, 2021