Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If, hypothetically, turnout matches 2018 levels, then "yes" will need 85% of what's left to win. Obviously a much higher turnout can nudge that number down, but... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We now have 13 counties with early vote, and "no" is at 65% of the vote, v. 59 percent for Newsom in 2018. And so far, these tallies represent 69 percent of 2018 turnout levels — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have results from four counties now, and so far Newsom's running 5 points ahead of his 2018 showing. If that holds statewide, it would give him around 67 percent of this first wave of ballots (and fwiw, Biden ran about 5 points ahead of his final result in the early 2020 vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Our first result: "no" at 72 percent in Napa. Newsom won 65 percent of the vote in Napa in 2018, when he won 62 percent statewide, so this is a strong showing for him in the early going--even considering that the early mail votes were expected to be strong for him — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The exits show "no" up by around 18 points or so. If so, those early Newsom votes may be enough to yield an early call https://t.co/BawJ29htc8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Expect Newsom to take an early lead, as the disproportionately Democratic early mail votes will be the first counted. If the 2020 election is any indication, the 'no' vote could start out 5 pts higher than the ultimate result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls have closed in California's gubernatorial recall election. NYT results here >>> https://t.co/rZ5fd7PKBz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Missed exit poll opportunity: French Laundry fav/unfav — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It wouldn't be very fun if the needle started out pointing at >95% and then imperceptibly nudged its way down https://t.co/0yOmqcxlm8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's not hard to imagine the Democrats losing the Senate in 2022, and not getting it back until there's another GOP… https://t.co/KjpmMUea33 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jonathanchait: This kind of behavior is going to be ubiquitous in 2024. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SpecialPuppy1 yeah, a few rurals — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And just for fun, the other artifacts from 1AM on Weds. 11/4 https://t.co/2UcMY9XYVr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's quite a bit different than the pre-2020 pattern, where the GOP typically fared better in the advance vote and Democrats did better later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to reiterate, that's not a prediction. This is a recall election, after all, and the trends in advance voting aren't identical. But they're not wholly different, either: the Dem reg edge in advance voting is nearly identical, 51-26, as it was at this point in 2020, at 50-25 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on the trendline in advance voting, I don't think I'd expect the shift toward the GOP to be quite so steep. But that shift--a net-10 points or so toward Trump from 1AM to the final outcome--might be a decent benchmark to keep in mind when Newsom starts out with a lead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When you piece it all together, the Election Day vote was basically 50/50 and the late mail votes were more like 60/40. The early mail dumps were 70/30. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The early dump of advance votes was overwhelmingly for Biden. In the end, Biden won California by a more modest margin--a mere 29 points--as the Election Day and late mail votes ate away at his lead, as it did in Arizona. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A flash-back to around 1AM ET on 11/4, with some modest implications for following the vote tonight https://t.co/Lddghbtn43 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, it is my understanding that there is no AP Votecast poll in California, so perhaps it may take longer for the AP or Fox News to make a call than the other news networks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Nate_Cohn: If the exit poll is like the pre-election polling, it is fairly easy to imagine a race call at poll closing or shortly there… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the exit poll is like the pre-election polling, it is fairly easy to imagine a race call at poll closing or shortly thereafter https://t.co/OggJTw4Yrb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Wow. If this IN GOP map passes, Dems would breathe pretty big sigh of relief. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This particular column resolves those questions in a way that a number of you won't agree with, I expect, but that'… https://t.co/spzjOIkiHG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The two core questions, which I've spent a lot of time mulling this year: --what level of voting access and electio… https://t.co/qnHtua5wqv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An important column, getting into a lot of the key questions that get papered over amidst the charged fights over s… https://t.co/9ZRSs6BJ2t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In terms of the substance of the bill, it'll be interesting to see any new subversion related provisions, which wer… https://t.co/lvHaSNpCdS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If those two conditions are met, you theoretically open up that 1-in-10 chance--or whatever it may be--that Manchin… https://t.co/0Q9R6peMXX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In theory, it should put progressives more-or-less where they would have like to have been in February: unified beh… https://t.co/cecK7I45W0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looks like we're finally going to get to see the new Democratic voting rights compromise https://t.co/LH5XToNnbJ — PolitiTweet.org