Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 1, 2021

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Tue Sep 14 19:44:52 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When you piece it all together, the Election Day vote was basically 50/50 and the late mail votes were more like 60/40. The early mail dumps were 70/30. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 14, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The early dump of advance votes was overwhelmingly for Biden. In the end, Biden won California by a more modest margin--a mere 29 points--as the Election Day and late mail votes ate away at his lead, as it did in Arizona. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 14, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on the trendline in advance voting, I don't think I'd expect the shift toward the GOP to be quite so steep. But that shift--a net-10 points or so toward Trump from 1AM to the final outcome--might be a decent benchmark to keep in mind when Newsom starts out with a lead — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 14, 2021