Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 1, 2021

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Tue Sep 14 19:47:59 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to reiterate, that's not a prediction. This is a recall election, after all, and the trends in advance voting aren't identical. But they're not wholly different, either: the Dem reg edge in advance voting is nearly identical, 51-26, as it was at this point in 2020, at 50-25 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 14, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on the trendline in advance voting, I don't think I'd expect the shift toward the GOP to be quite so steep. But that shift--a net-10 points or so toward Trump from 1AM to the final outcome--might be a decent benchmark to keep in mind when Newsom starts out with a lead — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 14, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That's quite a bit different than the pre-2020 pattern, where the GOP typically fared better in the advance vote and Democrats did better later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 14, 2021