Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 1, 2021

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Wed Sep 15 03:16:02 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We now have 13 counties with early vote, and "no" is at 65% of the vote, v. 59 percent for Newsom in 2018. And so far, these tallies represent 69 percent of 2018 turnout levels — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have results from four counties now, and so far Newsom's running 5 points ahead of his 2018 showing. If that holds statewide, it would give him around 67 percent of this first wave of ballots (and fwiw, Biden ran about 5 points ahead of his final result in the early 2020 vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If, hypothetically, turnout matches 2018 levels, then "yes" will need 85% of what's left to win. Obviously a much higher turnout can nudge that number down, but... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 15, 2021