Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HeerJeet lol hard to take you seriously after such a ludicrous and dishonest statement--obviously people, myself included, know you can win in the US as a minority — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, that may not be what conservatives want. If you want a Catholic Monarchy, for Catholic Monarchy's sake, then yeah Hungary is some hope! Maybe even Austro-Hungary! But if it's about checking excessive leftism, there's a more... American... path — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Neoconservatism--which drew much of its intellectual strength from the old Left, old New Dealers, etc.--is the more obvious precedent for a successful conservative pushback against a 'new left.' You can think of Obama-backing Twitter accts and Substacks that fit the bill today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In contrast, a classical liberal individualist culture runs extremely deep in America. It provides conservatives with a far more plausible, broadly held foundation for contesting a 'woke' 'illiberal' left. Working with it, not against it, is fairly clearly in their interest — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That is backward: Orbanism is a reflection of a conservative culture than the cause of it. And while conservatives can win in America, the idea that they could then implement Orbanist policies and turn American culture into Hungary is just not really credible — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It would be healthy for American conservatives to aspire to winning elections decisively. But they won't; real issue is with the culture/voters. They say as much: they're embracing Orbanism in hopes of checking a prevailing liberal culture. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is also worth noting that overreach has led to a unified anti-Orban opposition that might well even cost him power. Polls show a very different race rn https://t.co/M8Z9B2az05 https://t.co/gH3aiDUYXK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For all the critiques of Hungarian illiberal democracy (and there are real restrictions on press freedom etc), Orban won power by winning the popular vote *53 to 19* in a multiparty system. That's the source of his power, not subsequent conservative policies — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's kind of obvious, but you're going to get a more conservative outcome in country with that kind of electorate. Take this nice Pew chart of support for gay marriage among *Catholics,* by country. Democracy leads to different outcomes. https://t.co/AnAKPMKNfo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You can call Hungary a defender of 'western civ,' but this is not a nation with American, liberal, individualist, democratic values. It's a Catholic, conservative nation with roots in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, a conservative-nationalist Kingdom and time in the Eastern Bloc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems to me that the pro-Hungary conservatives have cause and effect partly backward. They look at Hungarian conservative/illiberal democracy, and see a model for America. But they're mainly seeing the effect of a more conservative/illiberal electorate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a nice piece on American conservatives and Hungary in NYT Magazine today, and reading some of the conservatives in there made me think it might be worth pointing something obvious out: Hungary isn't America https://t.co/KBR9RzxdDY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

to be fair, the Biden list of unacceptable cyber-targets was pretty reminiscent of the Acheson press club speech https://t.co/dngfmyUX97 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And oddly enough, Biden's a bit of a Truman fan. His bust is in the oval office. He evoked 'buck stops here' during Afghanistan. Clyburn invoked Truman (who had a real civil rights record), not FDR, as the real Biden comparison. Maybe it will be. https://t.co/tjLESi58J0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the end, the unrest of 45-47 was a prelude to post-war prosperity. We think of the 50s as the epitome of 'normalcy.' Truman won reelection and retook congress in '48 IDK if that's how the story ends this time, ofc, but I think it's reminiscent of what Biden faces today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Harry Truman seemed totally in over his head. It didn't seem like he could do anything to get control of the situation. The GOP crushed the Democrats in the midterms, retaking control of Congress for the first time since the depression — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As inflation has gone up, there's been a lot of focus on the 70s. But 1946 may be the interesting comparison. Inflation soared--higher than the 70s--as pent-up consumer demand was unleashed with the end of the war economy. Labor unrest swept the country. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think much in here will surprise you, but I think it might be worth drawing attention to the analogy at the end: Harry Truman — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/zrTk4cbgkD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: The thing about the hunt for the secret plan is that a lot of this was playing out in public. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta fair enough! what i don't think you've really contested: whether it was fair to say biden's weak among young voters. and i do think you're seeing patterns in the clouds if you look at 10 small unweighted samples, with a 24 pt range, and divide them into two separate stories. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta The case is even weaker here, since the sample sizes are smaller, sub samples are unweighted and we expect meaningful noise. Drawing attention to outliers is particularly dubious — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta your effort to reduce the average to the story of the two outliers is... not convincing. 'the polls show a close race in X, but there are really two possible stories: a blow out for either side' is not a fair characterization of the data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta this is how polling averages work--you usually have a mean with a lot of polls around it, in this case in the mid-40s, with outliers either side. emphasizing the outliers is... usually a mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta any polling average can be decomposed into multiple possible stories. in this case, i've simply asserted that biden's weak among young voters. that is plainly accurate: the polling overwhelmingly supports that view. even the 'good' polling for him is weak--your poll is merely +8! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta make that six: marist is 44/43 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta in this case, there are five major pollsters--monmouth, abc, pew, marquette, selzer--showing biden's approval in the 40s w/young people. that two show it in the 50s while one repeatedly shows it in the low 30s shouldn't deter anyone from seeing the clear story here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta of course it's a different political story--if you're stuck on the flawed frame of dwelling on the story told by individual pollsters. if you can't see that outliers don't necessarily undermine the story told by an aggregate, I don't know what to tell you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta it's important to 'call out' differences in this kind of story if they raise meaningful doubts about the over all argument: biden being relatively weak among young voters. it does not in this case, and your ex. about old>young approval is not advanced in this story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's also really important to make sure comparisons hold across similar methods, like, say, comparing to prior '20 RDD phone polls, rather than the exits. While the topline results are often similar, different survey methods often have huge underlying biases by subgroup — PolitiTweet.org