Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 3, 2021

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Sat Oct 23 15:03:08 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta this is how polling averages work--you usually have a mean with a lot of polls around it, in this case in the mid-40s, with outliers either side. emphasizing the outliers is... usually a mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta any polling average can be decomposed into multiple possible stories. in this case, i've simply asserted that biden's weak among young voters. that is plainly accurate: the polling overwhelmingly supports that view. even the 'good' polling for him is weak--your poll is merely +8! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jennagiesta your effort to reduce the average to the story of the two outliers is... not convincing. 'the polls show a close race in X, but there are really two possible stories: a blow out for either side' is not a fair characterization of the data — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 23, 2021