Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're now up to 646 precincts reported by the state, and Youngkin continues to run just ahead of our expectations for a tied race, by a net-2 pts or so. Still early, but at this point, fair to say the edge goes to Youngkin https://t.co/hFyFeIi2D5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yet again, McAuliffe running just a hair beneath his break even point. I thought he'd be at 75.5 in a tied race https://t.co/AfLMv43f5w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, there may be some decent signs for McAuliffe which aren't yet on the state website--and therefore not in the data I'm collecting and reporting https://t.co/3bA2cUXkRF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the needle would be tilting to the right if it were on the internet . — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, the needle would be pointing to the right if it were on the internet . — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The good news for Democrats: most of the vote reporting so far is election day, rural. So they'll gain from here. Still opportunities to run ahead from here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

350 precincts counted, and Youngkin is still running slightly ahead of our projections for a tie And he's doing it in nearly every category we're breaking down https://t.co/nsoQGFlHVo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's important to note, ofc, that there's a certain amount of guesswork involved in a hypothetical tie, esp in a state that hasn't had a close race in a while. Hopefully I don't need to state all the obvious caveats involved here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is a little complicated, but the 'dprior' is what we thought it would be in a tie and 'dactual' is what we're seeing. https://t.co/5wM9q88yhp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We now have over 100k votes over ~100 precincts. It's basically exactly what we thought it would be a tied election. But YoungKin is running just a little bit ahead of our expectations so far. Still very early; precincts not necessarily representative — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to be clear, I mean that he's running exactly how well he would if the election was going to be exactly tied. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We've got our first few thousand votes, from 11 Election Day precincts. It's not much, but extremely close to expectations: it's at 100% of our turnout projection (3.325 million), and Youngkin is running exactly how well he thought he would (80% of the vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Rhodesalt2 hold serve — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For some context, my best guess is that Biden won 63% of the statewide advanced vote. 60% statewide would represent a modest amount of attenuation for McAuliffe, but not necessarily anything deal-breaking. It's the kind of number I'd expect if we're heading for a close race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's reporting that Fairfax will report its advanced vote first. If McAuliffe is on track for 60% of the advance vote statewide, he might get around 75% of the Fairfax early vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever the result, we should get actual early votes pretty quickly, allowing us to better calibrate our expectations for the subsequent Election Day vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting that Trump won the Election Day vote by like >20. So McAuliffe can do way better than Biden among Election Day voters, and still lose (mainly because the early vote seems so much smaller) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By our estimates, the advance voters were 63% for Biden--80% in the mail vote and 57% in the early vote. Shading that down a bit to 60 (77/54.5) on the assumption McAuliffe loses some Biden vote, then Youngkin would need to win the Election Day vote by about 11 points to prevail — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on the data through 4pm today in about 7 counties, it looked like we were heading for a big turnout of around 3.3 million people. IDK if that pace held over the final hours, or if those counties are representative. But if that's right, then 2/3 of the vote is Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls are closed in Virginia We'll probably get some results soon, and it may not follow the usual red-to-blue pattern we've seen so many times in Virginia. Expect some blue early votes at the front-end, thanks to a new law allowing preprocessing of absentee votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/4bGj0Dj15X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

my middle name is david btw https://t.co/mSsKtLhZSw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I think this will be a handy table, showing the results/turnout v. expectations for a tied election by a bunch of categories. it's a lot of info, but i like it. https://t.co/6c15fSLCDg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sorry folks, still no needle But fortunately I did get the opportunity to do a lot of the work for one, so you'll get some shoddy graphics like this one https://t.co/9ueg3ijDoD https://t.co/xATLiO0QYt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT results are live https://t.co/wx3LNdHXiy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Preliminary, but hard to believe any iteration of these exits will land with a decent number for Biden's approval rating if they're starting there https://t.co/cE2p5fS7JG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@baseballot https://t.co/8usbT1vpic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I did manage to find enough time to do a lot of the work this week anyway. And I can tell you that if we did have a needle we'd probably be opening at a turnout of 3.3 million--easily eclipsing recent records for Virginia gubernatorial turnout. More when the polls close — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll also take this opportunity to thank all the people who offered well wishes for Uly the dog, who is finally starting to do better! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Sorry folks. As I mentioned last week, there's no needle tonight! https://t.co/zUdjibnwij — PolitiTweet.org