Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 17, 2021

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Tue Nov 02 23:00:13 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By our estimates, the advance voters were 63% for Biden--80% in the mail vote and 57% in the early vote. Shading that down a bit to 60 (77/54.5) on the assumption McAuliffe loses some Biden vote, then Youngkin would need to win the Election Day vote by about 11 points to prevail — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on the data through 4pm today in about 7 counties, it looked like we were heading for a big turnout of around 3.3 million people. IDK if that pace held over the final hours, or if those counties are representative. But if that's right, then 2/3 of the vote is Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting that Trump won the Election Day vote by like >20. So McAuliffe can do way better than Biden among Election Day voters, and still lose (mainly because the early vote seems so much smaller) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021