Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 17, 2021

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Tue Nov 02 23:00:13 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth noting that Trump won the Election Day vote by like >20. So McAuliffe can do way better than Biden among Election Day voters, and still lose (mainly because the early vote seems so much smaller) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By our estimates, the advance voters were 63% for Biden--80% in the mail vote and 57% in the early vote. Shading that down a bit to 60 (77/54.5) on the assumption McAuliffe loses some Biden vote, then Youngkin would need to win the Election Day vote by about 11 points to prevail — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever the result, we should get actual early votes pretty quickly, allowing us to better calibrate our expectations for the subsequent Election Day vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 2, 2021