Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray fair enough--i'll certainly concede it could be more precise! but i don't think the piece equates party-in-power penalties with thermostatic public opinion, which is how i understood your critique. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrendanNyhan @jon_m_rob @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray i'll certainly concede that it's not as precise as it would be in a journal article! though i do think 'runs too hot' is both in keeping with the thermostat analogy and... at least i struggle to see what it means other than policy (maybe i'm insufficiently imaginative) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray (as opposed to simply saying the midterm penalty = thermostatic public opinion) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @BrendanNyhan @CBWlezien @EthanBWinter @JamesFBooth @johnlray fwiw i don't think this thread is quite fair, at least in terms of my piece it's listed as one of several factors which likely hold some explanatory power in explaining the tendency for the president's party to fare worse (and that's not just true in midterms) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @BenjySarlin to be fair, that's the 4% who actually switch in any given election--the pool of plausible switchers, depending on candidates and environment, is quite a bit larger! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Certainly conceivable in 2026 https://t.co/1cuAqomfJD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky i do agree (though i might go more like 52.25). i do think it is worth emphasizing, though, that even in an utterly unbiased system, that a 52% average when you're out of power would generally not translate to sustained rule once you're in the WH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky i understand why democrats hate that they don't get more out of their 52%, but you really do need to aim higher to do what you want to do — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky which all goes back to a point that i made back to shor a few weeks ago: democrats should spend a lot more time thinking about winning big--the only way to get a lasting governing majority--and somewhat less about structural biases — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky a final reframing my point: your problem isn't just senate bias, but the unusual constitutional structure: multiple branches, 1/3 of senate up at a time, midterms, etc. you'd have a better chance in '24 if this were a parliamentary system, even if *just* as biased against you — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky ...and most parties don't hold trifectas unless they start with a lot more than that! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky so yes you can dwell on how hard it is for you, but don't lose sight of the fact that... you'd still have a hard time with your historically modest starting performance — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky a different way of framing my point: given historic party out of power penalties and so on, if the democrats win the house vote by ~52% in the three prior cycles, we would not expect them to hold the senate once they're in power--even with no structural biases at all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky and yes, if you're a party out of power, you'll have a good cycle in your three year average whenever you enter the white house. so there's nothing inappropriate about including the midterm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky i'm using the three cycle average since the senate reflects the last three cycles — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky given time for a change penalties, the democrats probably would have had a fine '24. and i do think you're overstating the needed margin by bit here: biden won 25 states, after all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky the three cycle house national vote average is, what, dems+3? it didn't set them up to have a comfortable senate majority here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky i'm not talking about bad luck. their problem is that they didn't win by more, given that it was only over two out-of-power cycles as opposed to the normal four — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Dems had won by a hair more in 18/20--say, ME/NC/FL--this would be a very different '24 picture. It would also be very different if they had lost in 20, and then have a slew of more credible 22/24 opportunities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think one could just as easily argue that the real problem is that they're starting at just 50. Democrats didn't win in 2020 by more/didn't lose to Trump and get wins out of 2022/2024, as one would ordinarily expect https://t.co/FlSXQ2S7NA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/QxKZE6u4hV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And it seems like there's a good economic case for the 1946 comparison on the inflation side of things, as well https://t.co/xwUrGh123w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @amyewalter: The challenge for this administration is less about 'wokeness' than it is about competence. More specifically, rising infla… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since there are still haters, may it be recorded as another fine night for needling https://t.co/u1Ree2c92J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Youngkin's lead has dipped to 1.9 points in Virginia, with nearly all the vote counted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@abaumania it is! not sure it's enough to toss out everything else or something, but i do think it's worth taking note of — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JosephRMolnar it was (roughly) more like 4 points in the supreme court race, 6 points in common wealth court, 10 in the superior court judge — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These races weren't terribly competitive--and they're fairly clear outliers from the overall picture--so I'm not inclined to make a lot out of it. But it's not nothing, and they were federal elections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're trying to find a relative bright spot for Dems last week, the special congressional race in OH-15 is probably a decent place to start There, the Democrat underperformed Biden by only 2.5 pts (v. 12 in VA). The story was similar in OH-11, where Dems underperformed by 3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(virtually all of the progressive replies depicted CRT as a rebranding of otherwise unobjectionable practices, like teaching history of race/slavery; virtually all the anti-CRT replies were focused on excessive anti-racism stuff, like California math standards, DEI talk etc.) — PolitiTweet.org