Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 15, 2021

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Fri Nov 12 15:17:23 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky and yes, if you're a party out of power, you'll have a good cycle in your three year average whenever you enter the white house. so there's nothing inappropriate about including the midterm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky i'm using the three cycle average since the senate reflects the last three cycles — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@msadowsky a different way of framing my point: given historic party out of power penalties and so on, if the democrats win the house vote by ~52% in the three prior cycles, we would not expect them to hold the senate once they're in power--even with no structural biases at all — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 12, 2021