Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @xenocryptsite idk, i think the case is stronger that materialist politics--> unions, not unions --> materialism. the industrial-era left goes soft well before unionization rates plummet — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another data-point on Delta, and how it shattered expectations of a fairly quick return to normal https://t.co/ILrt3swBiV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I do think the combination of Delta and Afghanistan is especially brutal. It at once dealt a big blow to people's confidence in the direction of the country and raised their doubts about the Biden administration's ability to deal with it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course not, but that doesn't mean it doesn't deeply weigh on people's confidence in the direction of the country, etc. https://t.co/nvCGI1nebO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the timing of Delta lines up just as well as Afghanistan (though that does make it hard to untangle the two) https://t.co/PSmY191w7i https://t.co/iUJrSJtbLP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One could argue that 7% inflation is more jarring today than it was in those prior instances, when baseline inflation was higher. But with this basic pattern, I do think it's reasonable to argue there's more going on than the financial pain of inflation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One could argue that 7% inflation is more jarring today than it was in those prior instances, when baseline inflation was slightly higher. But I do think it's reasonable to argue there's more than the financial pain of inflation with this basic pattern — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One note on inflation and consumer confidence: there's really no precedent for high consumer confidence with inflation in this range over the last 60 years, but confidence today (red dot)is probably lower than you'd guess based on inflation alone https://t.co/YRMnnhpKkY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Krugman's argument is that it's excessive coverage of inflation that's skewing perceptions of the economy. Mine is that it's attitudes about the Biden administration/direction of the country are skewing perceptions of the economy https://t.co/DvMmnXaYub — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Deservedly or not, the public lost confidence in the Biden administration's competence and leadership in August. The country has had an adrift and hopeless feel since then, with no sense of direction back to normalcy, etc. And that's what's holding back economic confidence — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Krugman's interpretation, this is just about unfair media coverage of the economy. But my counter-interpretation is that this is mainly about perception of the Biden administration (whether fair or not) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if you look at the questions in the confidence index, they're pretty... right track-wrong track-ish. It's hard for politics not to bleed into these kind of questions about the country as a whole, imo https://t.co/RgnebpwUMW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And of course, August largely precedes the peak of the supply chain shortages and inflation--or even the peak of Delta. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It would be fun to know the exact field period of the survey. But the same August drop occurs, of course, in other data--like Biden approval rating and the right-track wrong-direction numbers https://t.co/zrMAiPzeJi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is not my view that this August drop was associated with an abrupt change in the state of the economy. It was associated with an abrupt change in public confidence in the Biden administration, associated with the rise of Delta and Afghanistan — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In July, there was zero gap between perception and reality on the economy, at least by this measure. In August, a huge one had opened up and it hasn't recovered. https://t.co/KEju4cm3nB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In support of the Krugman thesis/my corollary is something interesting in this economic data: the timing of the collapse of consumer confidence — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In support of the Leonhardt thesis, I'd note that there's are certainly a lot of unusual economic challenges that voters could rightfully perceive that aren't reflected in the data. And a lot of it is highly visible--like when flight delays get blamed on staff being out bc COVID — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So why does the economy think the economy is terrible when it should probably be no worse than slightly below-average, and maybe even better than that? Krugman and Leonhardt have two competing theories: media coverage and COVID-induced economic challenges that aren't in the data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I'd note that, at least with this model, the public wouldn't be expected to think things are soaring. The economy looks slightly below average here. But that does depend on variable selection and I didn't have the stock market when I did this, which might nudge it higher — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you fit a quick model of consumer confidence as a function of inflation, gdp, income, and unemployment, you'd guess that consumer confidence should be 10-15 points higher or so, depending on model specification. A fairly large gap (truth is red; est is black) https://t.co/LaH8IZa1O1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If fit a quick model of consumer confidence based on inflation, real GDP, real personal income and unemployment, and you'd guess consumer consumer confidence would be about 1 pts higher than it is, based on pre-2021 data. (red is truth, black is estimate) https://t.co/4mpdUObzTN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Krugman notes the inflation numbers aren't *so* bad that it should mean consumer confidence is *this* low. I do agree with that premise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over at the Morning, @DLeonhardt is going back and forth a bit with @paulkrugman about why consumer confidence is low, despite a growing economy. They have two theories; I'll add a third — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Thanks to some favorable court rulings and stronger Democratic gerrymanders, that's a very live possibility at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It'll be interesting to see whether GOP frustration translates to any support for reform if the House winds up being biased toward the Dems with respect to the national vote, judged by presidential vote https://t.co/YdHGzaJuMw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@StephenBeban it’s not illiberal government — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: The hit game Wordle has been purchased by the New York Times Company for a price "in the low seven figures," the company said.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MikeMitchNH no? that's not to say the content of the plans = irrelevant, not by any stretch. it's just a separate question. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @grace_panetta: The bipartisan group of 16 senators working on Electoral Count Act reform/broader election reform met tonight. Here are… — PolitiTweet.org