Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 3, 2022

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Tue Feb 01 13:06:18 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you fit a quick model of consumer confidence as a function of inflation, gdp, income, and unemployment, you'd guess that consumer confidence should be 10-15 points higher or so, depending on model specification. A fairly large gap (truth is red; est is black) https://t.co/LaH8IZa1O1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If fit a quick model of consumer confidence based on inflation, real GDP, real personal income and unemployment, and you'd guess consumer consumer confidence would be about 1 pts higher than it is, based on pre-2021 data. (red is truth, black is estimate) https://t.co/4mpdUObzTN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I'd note that, at least with this model, the public wouldn't be expected to think things are soaring. The economy looks slightly below average here. But that does depend on variable selection and I didn't have the stock market when I did this, which might nudge it higher — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022