Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 23, 2022

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Tue Feb 01 13:05:00 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If fit a quick model of consumer confidence based on inflation, real GDP, real personal income and unemployment, and you'd guess consumer consumer confidence would be about 1 pts higher than it is, based on pre-2021 data. (red is truth, black is estimate) https://t.co/4mpdUObzTN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Krugman notes the inflation numbers aren't *so* bad that it should mean consumer confidence is *this* low. I do agree with that premise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you fit a quick model of consumer confidence as a function of inflation, gdp, income, and unemployment, you'd guess that consumer confidence should be 10-15 points higher or so, depending on model specification. A fairly large gap (truth is red; est is black) https://t.co/LaH8IZa1O1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022