Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked March 3, 2022

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Tue Feb 01 13:10:41 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So why does the economy think the economy is terrible when it should probably be no worse than slightly below-average, and maybe even better than that? Krugman and Leonhardt have two competing theories: media coverage and COVID-induced economic challenges that aren't in the data — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now I'd note that, at least with this model, the public wouldn't be expected to think things are soaring. The economy looks slightly below average here. But that does depend on variable selection and I didn't have the stock market when I did this, which might nudge it higher — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In support of the Leonhardt thesis, I'd note that there's are certainly a lot of unusual economic challenges that voters could rightfully perceive that aren't reflected in the data. And a lot of it is highly visible--like when flight delays get blamed on staff being out bc COVID — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 1, 2022