Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you said these Mecklenburg precincts were totally representative, then maybe McCready could net another 2200 votes out of Mecklenburg. But Bishop can get another 1600 of Union by the same approach. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The next 7 precincts in Mecklenburg are strong for McCready again. He's up by 10 in the Election Day vote there, which is very good if he could really do this (still have doubts). But very good, in this case, may not be enough to win given his struggles elsewhere — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now the reason hope is faintly alive is that McCready actually did do that in these first 7 precincts. But 7 precincts can easily be unrepresentative. So for now you're not betting on it. But we'll see if he keeps it up in later batches — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject ? they're basically the same in vote share — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems can reasonably hope to do better than last time in Mecklenburg, but by enough? Dems can hope to get it up to 35% of the district or maybe more, but the rest of the district looks like a swing against McCready. So he needs to outperform '18 by quite a bit to make it up — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We don't need too much more evidence of what's going on, but Anson County comes in at D+14.1, down from D+16.6 in 2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Oh quite a bit to the right. This first set of Mecklenburg results might keep Dem hopes alive. But without info on those 7 precincts, the needle would still assume that these were good Dem precincts given the preponderance of evidence https://t.co/vctu6NWN1C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

McCready won a batch of Mecklenburg County precincts by 11 points. I kind of doubt he can keep that up given what we've seen elsewhere, but it keeps me interested — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I feel pretty confident that a needle would be leaning toward the GOP, with Mecklenburg still providing some plausible hope for Dems https://t.co/9JhhUjszHa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Consistent with Scotland Co. Basically, McCready needs Mecklenburg to really come through; barring an anomalous Dem show of strength there, the rest is doing what Bishop needs https://t.co/CkgrrBKXs6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Deleted an erroneous tweet about Robeson, which is not done. (if you must know, i saw the 10 precincts in and read it as 100) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Better news for McCready: he wins Robeson by 19, an improvement over his 15.3 pt win in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Big mystery then will be Mecklenburg. So far, Bishop is running about 14 pts better on eday than election day in Union. If that held in Mecklenberg, then McCready would win what's out by 6 points. But who knows. And the size of turnout also very uncertain. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

He's netted 4619 so far, and if you just extrapolate by precinct you get to a projected net 8282, or 3663 to go. That covers McCready's current lead of around 2700. I'd guess most of the non-Meck parts of the district will be fairly close either way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well this thing is going to go on now for some time. One rough thing to watch is the extrapolated margin in Union, which is where Bishop needs to cover most ground. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Turnout is at about 2/3 of 2018 levels, which seems consistent with expectations — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Scotland County is complete. McCready won it by 12.9, down from 13.7 in the general. Consistent with another close race, though that's a decent result for the GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

McCready takes the early vote by 9 points, now with all counties reporting. This is basically what was expected, and so now we get to sit back and see what the GOP can do on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you're the Dems you're hoping for something like OH12. They did better in the special than the general, mainly due to turnout. Franklin Co (Columbus) was a far larger share of the electorate in the special. Do that in Mecklenburg tonight, and Dems could get over the top — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The mail vote, I should note, is 62% from Mecklenburg and sure seems like it should be good for McCready — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have early in-person votes from NCBOE and they're ok for McCready, who leads without anything out of Mecklenburg, which is 38% of the in-person early vote. Will probably wind up with a lead in the mid-to-upper single digits in the in-person early vote once Mecklenburg is in — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's been a long time since we've gotten an election with much national significance! We had so many specials in 2017, plus VA/NJ. Then a bunch of primaries. Longest drought of the Trump era, I'd say — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polls are closed in NC-09, finally NYT results here: https://t.co/DOUhaPZPQZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NCSBE: .@NCSBE has extended voting until 7:55 p.m. in Mecklenburg Co. Precinct 220 ONLY (Mint Hill Masonic Lodge #742, 10224 Lawyers Rd… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Polls close in NC-9 in 30 minutes NYT results are here: https://t.co/DOUhaPZPQZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@dabendschein https://t.co/DFxwJS1ykU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our final polls of GA06, IL14, CA48 over the last days of the race, the sample was R+6 or more in all. Dems led in all, and ultimately won. Dems had huge inroads with past GOP voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our NC09 poll, for instance, the *same* people were Trump+11 approval and R+0.5 in the horse race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And honestly, I can't tell you the case to the contrary. I do think there's a case that Clinton *might* have *barely* won with a 2012 turnout, though fallen far short of Obama in key states. But I'm not aware of a serious case for 'turnout explains all,' or anything like it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My 'interactions' are full of people asserting things like: there are no swing voters; the only thing that changed in 2018 is turnout, Democrats can't and haven't won over any Trump voters. And whatever you think of the optimal strategy for Democrats, this is all facially untrue — PolitiTweet.org