Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 28, 2020

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Tue Sep 10 21:01:57 +0000 2019

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And honestly, I can't tell you the case to the contrary. I do think there's a case that Clinton *might* have *barely* won with a 2012 turnout, though fallen far short of Obama in key states. But I'm not aware of a serious case for 'turnout explains all,' or anything like it — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My 'interactions' are full of people asserting things like: there are no swing voters; the only thing that changed in 2018 is turnout, Democrats can't and haven't won over any Trump voters. And whatever you think of the optimal strategy for Democrats, this is all facially untrue — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our NC09 poll, for instance, the *same* people were Trump+11 approval and R+0.5 in the horse race. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 10, 2019 Hibernated