Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Electability isn’t a new concern, 1860 edition (from “the impending crisis, by Potter) https://t.co/jYDrojaeDB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, interesting choices here. Would you rather a poll used the final LV probabilities, in the spirit of 'if the election were held today'? Or would you rather something that evolves as the election got closer, and gradually gave more weight to self-report over a model — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The pattern tracks fairly closely with the overall decline in error/bias at the end, including the possibly-Kavanaugh-related rough stretch in early October https://t.co/Yegi99wdGH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Self-reported turnout steadily became more accurate in the final stretch in Times/Siena polls, mainly because you could start to believe self-reported unlikely voters (validated turnout rate among those who said they were likely held pretty constant) https://t.co/ern8QdimDC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @wonderofscience: This mind-bending timelapse with the Milky Way stabilized shows the Earth is spinning through space. Credit: @Brummo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @bcondotta: Marshawn Lynch reported headed to Seattle for possible reunion with Seahawks. C.J. Anderson and Robert Turbin could also be… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: Top aide to @SpeakerRyan > https://t.co/ydaEsITnP9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More respondents in CA than any other state! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

NYT/Siena respondents, 2018-2019 https://t.co/E6iQHpxul7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think the Iowa caucus plan was and remains a little silly this year, and it's less representative of the Dems than ever, but you do have to tip your hat when 3% of the dem universe shows up to see a candidate who didn't qualify to the debate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pretty fun; there are 2300 Clinton voters in the county https://t.co/PAn3U6quP7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@KevinQ @BuffaloBills do we sell a monitor that i can use for viewing the seahawks tree? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Attenuating this concern to some extent is another fact I didn't really know until now: men actually do represent a larger share of young voters than older groups, with women most overrepresented over 65 (differential mortality rate, perhaps) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: Ho ho ho! Week 16 NFL Playoff Trees have arrived. As always, they are delightful. If you do not enjoy them, it's safe to say yo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ICYMI, our deep-dive on the persuadable voters in PA, MI, WI, FL, NC and AZ https://t.co/dtH06tM6td — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pretty similar set of answers to what we found in our battleground state survey https://t.co/83sfbL8NpH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@b_schaffner definitely not what we have fwiw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS Depends on how close, but yeah I'd guess Biden is ahead in all of those states right now, at least if you took TX Trump+1 and WI Biden+1 as given — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No adjustment needed https://t.co/Dal1t98ncr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway there's a lot of time for this to change. And I could pitch a case that there are hints of a Dem breakthrough in GA, for many reasons similar to Texas. But I do think it's imaginable that the Dems could inch very close to victory in all four without a win. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And for what it's worth, the three states with statewide contests in 2018 (IE: not NC) were all narrowly decided in GOP favor with Trump approval slightly above water. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Just for illustrative purposes--and I'm *not* saying this will happen, not at all--imagine that you run the 2012 to 2016 trend forward another 4 years: TX is Trump+2 FL is Trump+3 NC is Trump+3 GA is Trump+2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you don't believe me, consider that Clinton improved a net-7 pts over Obama in TX, while doing worse than Obama in FL, making no gain in NC, and ticking up 2.5 points in GA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing, btw, is that I have to disagree with the view in my replies that a Dem breakthrough in TX like this would necessarily represent great news for them in other red states. It would in AZ, but it's no guarantee in the FL/NC/GA, which really don't have much in common w TX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, it doesn't make it true, but Biden+5 in the US and Trump+1 in Texas, per recent CNN/SSRS polls, and Biden+1 in the recent Marquette poll of Wiscosnin do add up to a coherent picture — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: Unfortunately the Wind Cave is closed right now because the elevator is broken. https://t.co/CNYfB0DZKd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@henryolsenEPPC @HotlineJosh i know; i just thought i'd add some polls that did well, and they don't show trump approval underwater there like some others — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh @henryolsenEPPC sure, but i wouldn't say it really supports a dem opening — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh @henryolsenEPPC and we also found trump leading all non-generic dems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@HotlineJosh @henryolsenEPPC i'll just say that our final polls in IA were quite accurate in the house races, and they implied that the president's approval rating was slightly above water in 2018, and our 2019 poll found the same thing — PolitiTweet.org