Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think Arizona stands out as a possible bright-spot for Democrats. They would be better off if they had a breakthrough in Florida, instead or as well, which I wouldn't really rule out given Biden's strength among older voters and the sparse polling there to this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Over all, Trump's probably doing 4 or 5 points--and perhaps more--among likely voters in the electoral tipping point states than he does among registered voters nationwide — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And on top of this, these are polls of registered voters, not likely voters. Turnout's always a question but LVs are almost better for the GOP than RVs, and I'd guess that will hold again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump's persistent strength among white voters without a degree means his relative advantage in the white, working class battleground states persists as well. Not much question that Trump continues to fare better in the battlegrounds than he does nationwide https://t.co/XrEh0ZRVyN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, a lot of the analysis that you see, suggesting that Biden is doing worse or better among so-and-so group, is based on cherry-picking or an apples-to-oranges comparison of national RDD polls to exit polls. [clap emoji] it hasn't changed [clap emoji] — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, national polls show virtually no change among white voters with or without college degree over the last four years. But Biden does appear to be doing quite a bit better among older voters and weaker among nonwhite voters https://t.co/R02XRF3dsg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden starts the general election with a lead in national polls, but it's closer than it looks. The polls show the electorate split along the same demographic lines as 2016, leaving Trump's relative edge in the Electoral College intact. https://t.co/xYu9cn1jxf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @EricLiptonNYT: As part of our reporting, The NYT obtained hundreds of emails among a group of the top pandemic experts in the US--docto… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I thought I was ahead of the curve for buying 30 chicken thighs on and suggesting quarantine recipes on 2/27 https://t.co/FMC0JK2FQ0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/WSrva9ixou — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden wins Alaska’s novel party-run, mail-only, ranked-choice primary. Wasn’t a forgon conclusion in Bernie’s second best state from 16, given that most ballots were cast with Bernie in the race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For good measure, AK was Bernie's best state other than VT in '16. All considered, I would have considered Sanders a fairly clear favorite on 3/15, though with a lot of uncertainty. That said, it's not 3/15 anymore! Biden's lead in the polls had been growing. So who knows — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Mail-only adds an extra twist here, but in general an extra burden on voters would help Sanders--and that's aside from the fact that these ballots were cast while he was still in the race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a general rule, party-run primaries are somewhere in between a primary and a caucus in terms of the kind of voters it attracts. We've had one so far: North Dakota, the only contest Sanders has won since Super Tues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I suspect no one is paying too much attention, but we're expecting some results out of Alaska today, and my not-so-hot-take is that there's a fine argument to consider Sanders the favorite in this highly unusual all-mail party-run primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/OL5h0D3WvD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

what if the whole 2016 election is explained right here https://t.co/f59qnsuYdS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: “Asian Americans—whether you’re second-, third-, or fourth-generation, will always be viewed as foreigners,” Locke told me t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sangerkatz: If you think the Coronavirus death numbers are exaggerated, please look at this @jshkatz chart. https://t.co/cfz2hX5eJ5 htt… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MrAndrewCotter: Some sports are slower. More about the strategy. https://t.co/JMBaGJ1tSd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 as i said, i won't be offering an opinion on what's going to happen, but we'll see! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's super hard to model this stuff and I will not offer any opinion on whether it's likely or not. But the Western Europe comparison does some context to the projections, and it would be very fairly easy to tell, quite soon, which way we were heading — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That is exactly what the IMHE model, for instance, assumes. This morning, it shows just over 60k US deaths, and shows the US daily death growth peaking in 3 days, before it did in Western Europe, and starting to decline well before it clearly has in Western Europe https://t.co/bcwvMRFYTh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This comparison has always interested me, but it's all the more interesting with models projecting a smaller number of deaths in the US, perhaps as low as 60k--which Western Europe is going to blow through. To happen, the US would need to get off of the Western Europe track ASAP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So far, the US continues to track very closely alongside death and case growth in Western Europe, but perhaps two weeks behind. Western Europe daily deaths are holding pretty flat and haven't started to dip yet https://t.co/n1nUIye5lG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Let's revisit the comparison between the United States and continental Western Europe, where the death toll reached 51k yesterday https://t.co/aP33hpQGPY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Thinking *strictly* about politics, not your policy views, does COVID generally make a 'return to normalcy' Democrat or a "needs fundamental change" Democrat the better kind of candidate to matchup against Trump? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's something I didn't realize: Bloomberg won more votes than Warren in states where they were both on the ballot — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob is it that wacky? i mean, there's definitely a little loss on weighting on 3 instead of 4 cats. But enough to discount an N=3000 (!) poll off the file, weighted by party reg and file race? whatever its shortcomings, might be about as good as single public polls get — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob i mean, clearly you'd rather weight on 4 cats of education, but they're right on col/postgrad, which i'd argue is more important than somecol/hs — PolitiTweet.org