Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 18, 2020

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Thu Apr 09 15:03:39 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That is exactly what the IMHE model, for instance, assumes. This morning, it shows just over 60k US deaths, and shows the US daily death growth peaking in 3 days, before it did in Western Europe, and starting to decline well before it clearly has in Western Europe https://t.co/bcwvMRFYTh — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This comparison has always interested me, but it's all the more interesting with models projecting a smaller number of deaths in the US, perhaps as low as 60k--which Western Europe is going to blow through. To happen, the US would need to get off of the Western Europe track ASAP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it's super hard to model this stuff and I will not offer any opinion on whether it's likely or not. But the Western Europe comparison does some context to the projections, and it would be very fairly easy to tell, quite soon, which way we were heading — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2020 Hibernated