Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The major question: is this a high water mark for Democrats? These ideologically charged issues may fade down the stretch--the news has been very focused on them, as of late. The undecided voters are working class and just 23% approve of Biden's performance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That includes the GOP pulling to within just a few points of Democrats among Hispanic voters. The GOP is also up 54-23 among white working class voters, with that lead growing to 60-24 among likely voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This wasn't included in the story, but Democrats actually have a larger lead among white college graduates compared to our final national poll in 2020. Republicans just happen to be overperforming among the rest of the electorate by around 10 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The diverging pulls of the economy/inflation and the more ideologically charged news events of recent weeks (dobbs, jan 6, gun violence) appears to be a major driver, with everyone other than white college Biden supporters tending to focus most on the economy https://t.co/45ezFqd3Fa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For the first time in a Times/Siena national (or state poll with n>100 nonwhite respondents), Democrats won a larger share of white college graduates than nonwhite voters. Over all, Democrats led among white college grads, 57-36. They led 51-27 among non-white voters. https://t.co/nkXerGzAJW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats and Republicans begin the midterm campaign with voters split on which party they'd prefer to control Congress Among registered voters: D 41, R 40 Among likely voters: R 44, D 43 https://t.co/1QademGemT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump 49, DeSantis 25 in the what could be the first of many NYT/Siena tests of these two candidates in the '24 cycle. An important sliver of highly-educated Republicans have soured on Trump since '20 @MichaelCBender with the story https://t.co/TyTeVgbPmX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos this was an open ended question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Pavithra_Suri if only Der Spiegal had insisted Otto Weis was popular — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This poll felt like it was out of 2016. People aren't happy. That 43-40 on Biden/Trump isn't 17 percent undecided--they're mainly people who affirmatively volunteered I wouldn't vote/someone else, even though it wasn't an option https://t.co/S0Ii2Eduth — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

For some idea of the magnitude of the effect: people who voted in both 18/20 would have been 76% of the sample with simple random sampling. In our poll, it's 51% in the unweighted/weighted sample — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we pull out the effect of representing low turnout voters, Biden's approval rating in the unweighted sample would have increased by 3 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(that voted '18 not 20 subgroup at the top is like 1% of the sample. probably should have axed that before i tweeted--act responsibility) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Biden's weakness in the survey is heavily concentrated among less likely voters, and that's a big part of why his approval rating is lower than our poll than others (as our poll represents low turnout voters, who are far less likely to respond to surveys) https://t.co/3EvoIZoLnn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) While I haven't finished crunching the data, the nonresponse environment is pretty clearly different than '20. In this poll, weighting shifted the results toward the Biden by 1 point. In 2020, weighting shifted our polls an average of 4 pts toward GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have a lot to say about methodology that I just couldn't get done before we started publishing these articles, so you'll have to wait for some deep dives later this week or next week. But I do want to make a couple of observations that help explain Biden's unusual weakness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden has a 33% approval rating in the first Times/Siena poll of the cycle, as a majority of Democrats look for other options. @ShaneGoldmacher with the story https://t.co/JumDo5LEEP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And yes, this means polling season begins tomorrow — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polling season is upon us, so I'm finally getting around to finishing up the post-mortem on our 2020 polls. Anything you'd like to see investigated or questions that deserve an answer? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: Exciting news in the Upshot corner of the internet: We're hiring! Come join a tight-knit group of the smartest, most collaborat… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @KevinQ: .@nytmike's scoop about Comey + McCabe being audited has prompted a very reasonable question: What are the odds? In today's U… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ChiCyph80 @nytimes nope, though we'll have some old-fashioned 'dead' polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @rp_griffin @gelliottmorris same — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS in practice / as an empirical matter, it just seems hard for an issue to rise to such importance without it also becoming sufficiently important for a proportional system to respond too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS in practice / as an empirical matter, it just seems hard for an issue to rise to become so important without it also becoming important in a proportional system, too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS i do think the core of your point is a reasonable one--that in a federal system, there's a distinct and unusual secessionist risk if states can't satisfactorily influence policy in washington — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS i think the last clause is where i disagree. i just don't buy that the senate was decisive in whether the parties or federal government reacted to these challenges. weaver got 8% of the vote in '92! the populists/silver parties won 3.4% of house seats v. 4.4% of the senate in '92 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS there's no doubt that the south's sense of 'demographic doom' contributed to its fears. but radicalization was a two way street. it's the 1860 election, not the new census figures or new states, that leads to secession — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS anyway, i was mainly thinking about your story about the 'west'--not the south. clearly, if the south retained power in perpetuity, it wouldn't have seceded. the senate certainly advanced that, if it's your goal. the electoral college, interestingly, most certainly did not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JayCostTWS anyway, i was mainly thinking about your story about the 'west'--not the south. clearly, if the south retained power in perpetuity, it wouldn't have seceded. the senate certainly advanced that, if it's your goal--the electoral college, interestingly, most certainly did not — PolitiTweet.org