Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 14, 2022

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Mon Jul 11 12:24:40 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

1) While I haven't finished crunching the data, the nonresponse environment is pretty clearly different than '20. In this poll, weighting shifted the results toward the Biden by 1 point. In 2020, weighting shifted our polls an average of 4 pts toward GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 11, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have a lot to say about methodology that I just couldn't get done before we started publishing these articles, so you'll have to wait for some deep dives later this week or next week. But I do want to make a couple of observations that help explain Biden's unusual weakness — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 11, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

2) Biden's weakness in the survey is heavily concentrated among less likely voters, and that's a big part of why his approval rating is lower than our poll than others (as our poll represents low turnout voters, who are far less likely to respond to surveys) https://t.co/3EvoIZoLnn — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 11, 2022