Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: It’s pretty cool that our work with @ernietedeschi ended up predicting the contours of today’s job report nearly a month out… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: If Republicans were smart they'd back another massive stimulus and take 10% Q3 growth into the November elections. But the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sarahkliff: Wow: the health care industry recovered 312,000 jobs between April and May alone. 244,000 of those were in dentist offices… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JoshSchwerin: Good morning, if you are reading this tweet you are probably not the target audience of any ad we’ll ever run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JeffreyGoldberg: Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis denounces President Trump, accusing him of making a mockery of the Constituti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DrewLinzer: Support for the #BlackLivesMatter movement is the highest it has ever been in over three years of polling @Civiqs. This wee… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @AlanIAbramowitz the polls we're talking about in this conversation would literally be off this chart (which is a month old) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @AlanIAbramowitz the poll we're talking about in this conversation would literally be off this chart — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer yeah, that's actually about exactly how i'd characterize a pandemic w 100k dead, 20% unemployment, and widespread protests/unrests — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have a similar trend from ABC/Post this week, which went from Biden+2 in March to Biden+10 now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have a similar trend from ABC/Post this week, which was went from Biden+2 in March to Biden+10 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+11 in Monmouth adds to a growing body of high-quality national polling showing that Biden's lead has grown quite a but over the last few months Monmouth trend: Biden+3 in March, +4 in April, +9 in May, +11 now. https://t.co/mFOzyPDMNF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dfriedman33: Asked who they’re with, these guys say only that they’re with “The Department of Justice.” https://t.co/ciVDtP8ndk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Warren got 21% of the vote in DC Ward 1 last night (Columbia Heights, etc.), which is basically as well as she did in her home state (21.49%) when she was actually running for president — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini 20% in ward 1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I am going to return to my other work now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We now have several more counties ticking up to 100% in IA-4 and, although I'd argue they're a little better for King than the early vote, they're nowhere near enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I could conjure up a case that the early vote is unrepresentative. His best county right now--Hancock--is one of just two that's at 100% counted. But that's his main source of hope as far as I'm concerned — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I could conjure up a case that the early vote is unrepresentative. His best county right now--Hancock--is just one of two that's at 100% counted. But that's his main source of hope as far as I'm concerned — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Steve King's (R-IA04) reelection chances are in jeopardy right now, as he trails a GOP primary challenger by 8 points so far. His hope, at this point, is that the early vote is unrepresentative. And that's his only hope, as many relatively weak areas for him are outstanding. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kasie: Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, when asked if what we saw at the White House last night was an abuse of power: “By the protestors, yes.” — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: .@RalphNortham flatly told @EsperDoD on a call ystdy afternoon that, no, Va would not send their national guard to DC, per tw… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @peterbakernyt: Trump just stands in front of the church and holds up a bible while posing for photos. He does not even go inside for a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @peterbakernyt: In the Rose Garden, Trump calls himself "an ally of all peaceful protesters." At the very same moment outside the White… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Tear gas has been fired outside the White House at protesters who, on TV, appeared to have their hands raised or were not be… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Working in the other direction is that Biden appears to have a bit of an enthusiasm disadvantage. Of course, an enthusiastic vote counts as much as an unenthusiastic one, but it is hard to say the situation has changed much since '16 and it's probably not *irrelevant* to turnout — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Or, if you prefer, the GOP has an underlying turnout edge, but the party out of power enjoys a bit of an edge as well. These kinda cancel out when the GOP is in the White House, and the Dems can find themselves in dire straits when they're up for a midterm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another candidate is the general increase in Democratic engagement since '16. This is in keeping with the historic tendency for the Democrats to come closer to turnout parity when the GOP is in the White House, as we saw in '18. https://t.co/nf86TNO6F7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One obvious candidate is the decline in the age gap since '16, as age is highly correlated with turnout and Biden seems to be faring quite well with older voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't expect the education gap to attenuate the Democratic turnout disadvantage (after all, the education gap is basically unchanged from '16), but there are some other reasons to expect the LV/RV gap to narrow https://t.co/b1Ys98Krwq — PolitiTweet.org