Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 2, 2021

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Sun May 31 16:41:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't expect the education gap to attenuate the Democratic turnout disadvantage (after all, the education gap is basically unchanged from '16), but there are some other reasons to expect the LV/RV gap to narrow https://t.co/b1Ys98Krwq — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn given the rise of educational status as a partisan indicator, and it's correlation to likelihood to vote… https://t.co/ha6fdO1JxK

Posted May 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But when you go from Biden plus 5 or 6, like in April or March on average, to 8 or so--where we've been in high quality polls in May/June--that's, for me, where you go from 'this race is probably still pretty close' to 'Biden's probably got a comfortable lead.' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One obvious candidate is the decline in the age gap since '16, as age is highly correlated with turnout and Biden seems to be faring quite well with older voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 31, 2020 Hibernated