Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 2, 2021

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Sun May 31 11:35:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But when you go from Biden plus 5 or 6, like in April or March on average, to 8 or so--where we've been in high quality polls in May/June--that's, for me, where you go from 'this race is probably still pretty close' to 'Biden's probably got a comfortable lead.' — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is worth remembering, of course, that "Biden+X" among registered voters nationwide is probably not as good for him as it looks. There's a probable LV-RV advantage for Trump--unusually large in this poll, fwiw. There's the battleground v. national issue. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I wouldn't expect the education gap to attenuate the Democratic turnout disadvantage (after all, the education gap is basically unchanged from '16), but there are some other reasons to expect the LV/RV gap to narrow https://t.co/b1Ys98Krwq — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn given the rise of educational status as a partisan indicator, and it's correlation to likelihood to vote… https://t.co/ha6fdO1JxK

Posted May 31, 2020 Hibernated