Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 i don't think the dataset is necessarily a core area of contestation, though i do think the question of how post-war fundamentals fare pre-war is an important one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @NateSilver538 @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 but, conversely, asserting that 99% is simply what 'the data' says, as you put it, rather than the result of a series of debatable choices (that I don't think most folks would agree with, and certainly lead to higher confidence) doesn't cut it either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CooperFrye @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 certainly the amount i've been outside is beyond 95% CI! but i don't think it has been politically; we're talking about a 5 point shift in approval and the horserace — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 and like, i'm just eye-balling it here, but aren't you already at or out of your 95% CI from march? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 maybe we need to have some humility on our ability to distinguish a 1:20 from 1:200 risk on the joint distribution of N=18, when one of your two variables here isn't even a measurement but a varying backfit inference? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 but what, in english, is the empirical basis for believing that Trump has a 1% chance of winning the popular vote? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob you're just missing a zoom-in on that date — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jon_m_rob: https://t.co/LIbbNF0zi1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: Here's our updated story on Portland, exploring how a militarized federal deployment is unfolding in a city that doesn't w… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jshkatz: Where are you most likely to run into someone not wearing a mask? We used over 250k survey responses to map this down to the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AsteadWesley: canada WUT r u doing https://t.co/sTGLexs3ZV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be sure, there were some rough numbers for Trump in in late May (ABC/Post, Monmouth, for ex.), and there was a longer term decline in Trump standing since April. But up until that point there were still some ok numbers for Trump. They went away after Lafayette — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You may recall this series of tweets, noting that it sure seemed like the polls abruptly got worse for Trump around this time--with the last merely mediocre polling for him taken right over the Lafayette sq. incident https://t.co/XC05NlHz6l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A strong interview with @davidshor here, much of which I agree with. One thing I'd flag and reiterate is that the Lafayette Square incident feels like a clear moment of discontinuity in the polling https://t.co/3iwJK9c5YI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved s… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Federal Law Enforcement Use Unmarked Vehicles To Grab Protesters Off Portland Streets . News | OPB https://t.co/jlwAKl4aFB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I’m doubting that there’s been a huge lurch on party ID, at least if you don’t push independents to lean https://t.co/8bxs15A9WK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Looking back, the Times/Siena polls showed no change in party ID in the battlegrounds since October, and it’s a big party reg. weighted sample — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @colvinj: "The suburb destruction will end with us," Trump says from the White House, saying he'll make an announcement next week to pro… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Teixeira is right about why they squandered it: they thought they were winning with a different coalition than the one they had. The catch is that he was part of describing a caricatured version of the Obama coalition https://t.co/U9pNTplQMu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Texeria is right about why they squandered it: Democrats thought they were winning for a totally different set of reasons. The catch is that he was one of the people describing a caricatured version of the Obama coalition https://t.co/FOXpz78nPo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But the fact that it was hard to figure things out doesn't change that many people were wrong. They weren't just misinterpreted — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, the terrible 2012 exit polls made it hard to unpack all of this stuff. It took me a couple of years to try and sort through what really happened between 2004 and 2012--Obama gains among white northeners--which you can read about here https://t.co/m8wFBkB4P6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Instead, analysis between 2012-2016 is devoted to tedious analysis of incremental demographic change. Dem dependence on white voters in the Midwest is mentioned as an afterthought, and even then the inevitable triumph of demographics is assured https://t.co/SNfnRzTb9a — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Indeed, the most important thing to note in that book is that West Virginia is a blue state in the emerging Dem majority https://t.co/5drdFcuSLG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The word 'white' does not appear in his post-2012 piece, even though any serious look would find that Obama strength among white northerners, particularly in the Midwest, was a lynchpin of his comfortable win. "Midwest" doesn't even appear. https://t.co/PyPQUzxupd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Most of what Texeria is saying here is reasonable--including that 'the emerging democratic majority' book was misinterpreted. But it's not just that it was misinterpreted by others. He was an active participant, and some mea culpa here is merited https://t.co/Iq6DeaJxIp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Bouje99 Indeed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: “This nation built the Empire State...in 410 days during the Depression, and the Pentagon in 16 months during wartime. Today’… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: Biden/DNC have added TV ad spending in Texas. Going up on broadcast for the first time there So far we’ve tracked spendi… — PolitiTweet.org