Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Team Trump has booked more spending in Ohio than anywhere except Florida. If you're the Biden campaign you'd like to keep it that way! You also don't want to burn so much on a state on the periphery of the map. This kind of buy seems intended to balance those concerns — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mattyglesias it's not a real play for ohio, but it is not justified to reach the one or two counties on the other side of the stateline. it's a tactical move to tie down trump spending — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think you'd expect Biden to be up in Ohio based on the national polls and the huge shifts among white voters. I don't think it's close to being the tipping point state, but the tactical argument for engaging here is Trump campaign spending https://t.co/kOUePZyY5C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden campaign reportedly expanding into Ohio with 7-figure buy. Trump's already spending a lot here. https://t.co/UlyicOjS67 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, among state pollsters but not among national polls (though I don't think that will be true anymore, as Monmouth appears to now be using a similar technique for estimating educational attainment; see 34% in yesterday GA poll) https://t.co/2Q68X6PJSM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's a look at how educational attainment in PA state polling has changed since 2016 https://t.co/nchF6YnseM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Franklin and Marshall poll in Pennsylvania today has Biden+9, 50 to 41 percent. Notably they're now weighting by education, so that's an improvement (though tbh they still come in a bit high to me) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsAndVotes: A coda to previous post on party by year of birth: How you code age can confound or clarify. There are at least 3 commo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ForecasterEnten I remember getting the promised text message about Biden's selection several hours after I learned he was selected--which I don't remember — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do not remember where I was when Clinton selected Kaine. https://t.co/4De71HavSm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @CharlieGileNBC: Rep. Louie Gohmert thinks that it’s possible that wearing a mask gave him COVID. https://t.co/kucy119Pcv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: BREAKING: The feds are withdrawing from Portland https://t.co/knGsABLp4d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

47-47 in Georgia, per Monmouth. Trump opens up a 1-3 point lead under varying likely voter screens. https://t.co/NGHEcH9DfZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Louis Gohmert, who refused to wear a mask, tests positive for coronavirus - POLITICO https://t.co/sbGRguqgs1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ZekeJMiller: WASHINGTON (AP) — US to withdraw troops from Germany, sending 6,400 home and 5,400 to other countries, under shakeup sough… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I don't really understand the view that MN is a better option for the GOP than MI. College grads represent a far larger share of the electorate in MN, and black voters, far greater in MI, are a rare plausible improvement for Trump relative to '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If Biden was going on offense in GA/TX/GA/IA and I didn't have the resources to play defense without triage, then cutting Michigan could be in the conversation. I don't think the public polling supports giving up on it, tho I wouldn't rule out the idea that their data is that bad — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If I were in charge of the Trump campaign, I would certainly still be spending in Michigan--especially as long as Biden isn't pouring money into the OH/TX/GA/IA tier. If he was, I'd understand the argument better https://t.co/OONkmraTQe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As the story notes, spending patterns change and Trump could certainly return in Michigan. And if the race tightens, I'd sure think they would return. But the race isn't especially close right now, and that's the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As the story notes, spending patterns change and Trump could certainly return in Michigan. And if the race tightens, I'd sure think they would be. But the race isn't especially close right now, and that's the point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump campaign off the air in Michigan is a telling indication of where the race is at now https://t.co/KUOdsqSGHC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as you may recall, it was Romney who led among independents back when we were doing those 'unskewed polls' fights back in 2012. The Democratic party ID edge was the foundation of Obama's edge. That's just not true now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As my note on 'unleaned' implies, Biden's big gains are among independents. There are plenty of polls where he's up 20. There's no plausible party ID target where that's consistent with a close race — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And in general, the polls... don't really show a shift in unleaned party identification since earlier in the year. To some extent that still begs the question, but it does imply that Biden's gains aren't attributable to partisan nonresponse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some really interesting regional patterns here that I don't go into, btw. 18% of white southern rural Democrats call themselves Republicans Only 56% of northern metropolitan registered Republicans called themselves GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our national poll, a slightly smaller share of file-based 'Republicans' identify as such (65%) compared to the 'Democrats' (69%). Unaffiliated voters--disproportionately young and nonwhite--identified as Dems by a 5 point margin (24 to 19). It added up to D+8 by party ID — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Voter file data offers other clues. Nationwide, Democrats (registered Dems or recent primary Dem voters), outnumber Republicans by 6 points, 36 to 30 percent, in the 45 or so states with either measure. Doesn't prove advantage in Dem *ID*, but certainly consistent with it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Times/Siena polling last month, registered Republicans were 12 percent likelier to respond to the survey than registered Democrats. After controlling for factors used in weighting, the effect of partisanship on likelihood to respond was a *zero* (coefficient = .0003) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Are the polls understating the number of Republicans? Probably not. https://t.co/1Li7mGemJC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING TOMORROW: Georgia: 2020 #GeneralElection race between @realDonaldTrump and @JoeBiden and both US Senate races. PLU… — PolitiTweet.org