Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This, to me, is simply not a 'shy' Trump vote. It is a Trump vote that's spitting in the face of the pollster, not one afraid to show off the confederate flag hat that they're wearing. But it would be more dangerous for polling and it would be harder to identify — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This argument just can't be dismissed. It is quite obvious that response rates have degraded to the point where polls depend on robust controls; once that's true you just can't guarantee that you've controlled for everything that's material, even if you take a robust approach. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's at least *something* to this argument: after all, we know that voters without a degree are far less likely to participate in surveys. Who says it's not a particular kind of voter without a degree that's particularly receptive to Trump, even controlling for education? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A better version of the argument is that Trump voters just refuse to participate in surveys, all together. There are a variety of forms of this argument: suspicion of the media/polling/establishment; an 'FU' attitude toward volunteerism; higher rates of manual, non-office work — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TLDR: if the race was Biden 45, Trump 42 online, and Biden 45, Trump 37 on phone, and there were a lot of undecided GOPers in one but not the other, you'd have the makings of a real case! I don't see anything like that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There was no serious evidence to back this up in 2016, and this version of the tale also just doesn't comport with common sense. There's nothing quiet about the MAGA boat parade vote. And there's no evidence of it in the tabs. He's >90 with Republicans, after all — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The old version went like this: Trump voters won't tell pollsters the truth because supporting Trump is socially undesirable. Honestly, it just doesn't add up. Trump doesn't do worse online than live polls. And Biden's >= 50; that's not bc of Trump voters saying they're pro Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we're going to talk about 'shy Trump' voters, it's worth being clear about what we're really talking about. The old version of the theory just doesn't make sense, but there are others that can't be discounted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

eyes emoji https://t.co/qI8esnjHIS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden up 9 in Minnesota, per SurveyUSA Until you can find me a poll showing Trump closing in on his standing white voters from pre-election polls in 2016, I don't really see why we'd expect a close race in Minnesota https://t.co/7ATRPEqOGy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the great signs of intellectual decay as a result of partisanship is the incredible number of people who managed to convince themselves 'all election maps are bad unless they're cartograms' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kilometerbryman @k_rboyd well, however it happened: this '16 data has the old code on it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@k_rboyd @kilometerbryman it's blank; the post-16 name change meant the data didn't join properly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, this kind of analysis treats very heterogeneous groups as pretty homogenous, and the real world will undoubtedly upset the picture here in subtle but material ways. Still kind of fun. Also ignore AK and Oglala Lakota County. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, this kind of analysis treats very heterogeneous groups as pretty homogenous, and that's bound to upset the picture here in subtle but material ways. Still kind of fun. Also ignore AK and Oglala Lakota County. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Random map of the day: result by county if you take the '16 results and apply the demographic swings in national polls https://t.co/Bf5hG4Hi0V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: Among WI likely voters, 47% say they will vote for Joe Biden, 43% say they will vote for Donald Trump in presidential electi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MULawPoll: New Marquette Law School Poll finds slight change in presidential choices or attitudes toward major issues among Wisconsin v… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @maristpoll (and similarly my 36/37 was for college grads) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @maristpoll oh i'm sorry, i misread. i thought you said college grads were 46 percent. carry on! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @maristpoll we were 34 among RVs in june — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @maristpoll 36/37 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict @maristpoll is 46 a typo? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FiveThirtyEight rates polls based on error v. expected error, and assumes they can take care of bias with house effect adjustments. Several of their top pollsters have long records of systematic bias https://t.co/owFrCsiV81 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes: random, unbiased sampling creates noisy subgroups that cancel out. Biased methodological choices, OTOH, may not cancel out. https://t.co/1emtygwg7A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Marist appears to do two things: --they weight by region, which is helpful but insufficient --I *think* they stopped calling out of state cells, which is hard to defend but *could* cancel out not weighting by edu. The hope is two wrongs make a right? https://t.co/8rFBVn5Hb4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whatever you think of the USC poll overall, I would certainly take its change over time seriously. It's a panel survey, so most changes aren't due to changes in the sample, and shift in USC predicted change in the average in '16 pretty well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Decent set of polls for Biden this morning. The two headlines: --USC shows RNC bounce fading out --Marist has Biden+9 in PA, which helps nudge the average there back toward expectations. That said, not weighting by education remains a big cause for caution with this survey — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Add this to your list protracted election night scenarios: ME ranked choice in the presidential race stands, and ME2 flips in a post-election instant run off https://t.co/VW8jhW05Y0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One pretty simple thing to keep in mind is that this election is a lot *less* about immigration and the president's rhetoric toward Hispanic voters than it was in 2016. That trade may work out well for Biden over all, but maybe not in Miami-Dade https://t.co/aCUedhmRa4 — PolitiTweet.org