Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polling is going to be a bit behind the news for the next few days, but by the end of the day we'll probably at least have a good picture of where things stood after the debate and before Trump's COVID diagnosis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is just one poll, but USC was really just about the only good news for the president over the last week or so. With this version of the USC tracker, the big picture snaps into focus more clearly than before — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is just one poll, but if you were looking for good news for the president over the last week or so, this was really just about it. But things do snap into focus a bit with this version of the USC tracker — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to Maggie Haberman about what we know regarding when Trump first tested positive, how the President… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

USC updated its tracker--fixing a technical error--and now shows Biden gaining, rather than steadily losing his lead. He's up by 10 instead of 7 this AM https://t.co/XBPcqNHRur — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @seungminkim: Per AP: "Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, said the president went through a 'very concerning' period Friday and the n… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @TimAlberta: You cannot issue a blind quote contradicting a briefing by the president's doctor while the president is hospitalized with… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @rebeccaballhaus: A White House official clarifies Dr. Conley’s timeline. He says Conley meant to say it’s Day 3, not 72 hours in—the di… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since a few of you have asked: the majority of our interviews last night were in AZ. So the shift in the Friday numbers had very limited influence on the toplines here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonetheless, it's Trump who trails and needed a win. Instead, he lost, even if his opponent didn't excel on his own terms. Not much time left. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, Biden didn't exactly kill it either. Most voters didn't want to declare anyone a winner and Biden's ratings didn't improve compared to our pre-debate PA poll, and even fell by a lot on whether he was a strong leader. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The debate certainly did nothing to help the president. His ratings dropped across the board. An overwhelming majority of voters disapproved of his performance, including one-third of his own supporters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nonetheless, if you take the two PA polls together we've got Biden+8 with N>1400 in perhaps the most important state with just over a month until the election. This is a fairly daunting deficit in a stable race. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Pennsylvania poll was pretty in line with the poll averages and our pre-debate poll, which found Biden+9. I should note that this sample was much more GOP (R+1, in fact) than our prior sample by party identification, so we might just have a better-for-Trump sample this time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's just a subsample, so big MoEs here, but we found no evidence of the big Trump gains among Hispanic voters in Florida or in Miami-Dade County. Biden even narrowly led a (very small) sample of Cuban voters; they were R 47-28 by registration. Again, small samples but... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of the two results, the biggest surprise was probably Florida, where we found Biden+5 with a R+4 sample. This is a fully updated voter file that reflects some meaningful GOP registration gains in the states. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The shift, though, would be material if confirmed and it was statistically significant, controlling for the demographic and political variables used in weighting. That said, it's still just one day of interviews. We'll have to wait and see here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In an analysis of interviews conducted yesterday, including in Arizona (where a poll is ongoing), there was modest evidence of a shift in Joe Biden's direction after Trump's COVID diagnosis. That said, one day of interviews is not nearly enough to reach any firm conclusions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and Florida, according to new Times/Siena polls taken after the first debate. Biden leads in Pennsylvania, 49 to 42 percent among likely voters. He leads in Florida, 47 to 42. https://t.co/wVmJug6Yax — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @abbydphillip: Per @mkraju Sen. Rick Scott is NEGATIVE for COVID-19. He misspoke in an interview this morning, per his office. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @FoxReports: Rick Scott says he has tested positive in interview on Fox News. “I was tested yesterday I think for the 6th time and I t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Oo an interesting update from USC: "We are currently addressing a technical error in our calculations. The data and graphics will be available again as soon as it has been resolved." https://t.co/XBPcqNqgCT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The USC tracking poll is taken over 14 days, so it doesn't really account for... a lot at this point. But it has a pretty strong signal of longer-term tightening that we don't see in the other data https://t.co/XBPcqNqgCT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

From a political standpoint, this is a pretty remarkable place for the October COVID hostpot https://t.co/QavXqnVY3V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JakeSherman: 🚨🚨BREAKING … SEN. RON JOHNSON has Covid. 3rd Senate Republican to test positive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're also in the field in Arizona, where we started on Thurs., so that'll help us take a look at whether there's any change yesterday — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The data's in and final but you've still got a couple of hours to wait. I've got to write. Editors got to edit. Go walk your dog or something. Looks like a nice morning! https://t.co/CUpgaNmHyL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As far as I'm concerned we could justify polling PA continuously between now and the election https://t.co/sLV1SqKLzD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Started Weds., so post-debate. Who knows what today will mean, though I'll see whether there's any serious sign of movement in the AM (doubt it) https://t.co/ddKk5g0lwB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're still in the field overnight, so finishing touches in the morning and no need to set your alarm, as it seems some of you do. — PolitiTweet.org