Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today at 1PM: NYT/Siena in Montana Next up: Texas https://t.co/bEePpsx829 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

forgot link: https://t.co/YlQewT8fsF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+7 in Pennsylvania from Muhlenberg College, 51 to 44 percent. This is a solid pollster and they have not shown rosy results for Biden in the past here. Their last two surveys were Biden+4 in August and a tied race in February. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(I've been uncomfortable with the timing of this debate all year. It's so close to Election Day, both narrowing the window for final polling and potentially biasing surveys a bit in its immediate aftermath, for good measure. But I am hopeful that tonight should be fine) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I take the relatively unbiased party ID in the CNN 'instapoll' as a heartening sign on this front — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My hope: with both sides feeling good enough about how their candidate fared in the debate, we should have a relatively unbiased read on the race in post-debate polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No meaningful change in favorability for either candidate before and after the debate, per CNN instapoll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

CNN instant poll... Biden 53, Trump 39 32D-31R party ID — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @benyt: The story Trump has been waiting for, and teeing up.... is a brief that says there's no evidence for his central claim https://t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Maybe this would be the big and concerted focus of a typical GOP campaign over the final stretch. But IDK if this is that campaign https://t.co/HAvdek25O3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini oh you're grateful we polled those states and added something besides some dem internals to the picture — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All that said, this actually does make me feel pretty ok about the prospect of high turnout. If, like us, you've already baked the '18/20 Dem primary vote into your turnout model, then I think the new voters from there are probably pretty even — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And worth noting that I'm not at all adjusting for the size of these various states, so Montana is getting 2x the weight of Florida, for example — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And one last cut (again, pooling all states / data) All RVs: Biden 46, Trump 42 Our results: Biden 47, Trump 43 Validated 2018 voters: Biden 48, Trump 42 Validated 2016 voters: Biden 46, Trump 43 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And if we break those 'vote neither down': Newly reg: Biden 47, Trump 36 Previously reg: Trump 41, Biden 40 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Across all the polls we've done so far this fall (n=19000!): Vote 2018 only: Biden 52, Trump 37 Vote 2016 only: Trump 45, Biden 39 Vote neither Biden 44, Trump 38 Vote 2016 and 2018: Biden 48, Trump 43 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Still true in our polling — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris I don't think there was ever a day when Trump would have been favored in the nowcast, but I do think it was competitive. At that time, Trump still had ~'16 levels of support among white no college voters in the polls and PA/WI/MI were all close in the FiveThirtyEight avg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins I agree; there's a real case for stability, dating all the way back to Jan 17, and there are issues with the case that it was just COVID. But at the same time, I do think there are similar issues with the case that Trump's defeat was inevitable, should it materialize — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins And at the time, a lot of people tried to explain away Trump's strength in Jan/February polling as about impeachment! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And these gains in Feb/March, at least as I recall them, weren't just about the Democratic primary. I mean, I remember people trying to dismiss it as differential non-response in favor of Trump because of impeachment, for example — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, we'll never know what would have happened without COVID. But if you go through those FiveThirtyEight poll averages and look at where they were in March/April, I think you at least have to acknowledge that's very very different than where we are now — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This WI trendline wasn't starting at 0 because it was the prior! https://t.co/0SQCKbCixW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The polling, though, was fairly clear: maybe Biden only up by about 5 among RVs at the end of the primary. The polls in Wisconsin were super close. The national polls showed Trump matching his '16 standing among white working class voters, which is nowhere near true today — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think this is at least possible but I'm wholly sold, either. The race was pretty plainly competitive in the late winter/early spring, IMO. Maybe Biden was hampered by temporarily by the primary, and his later gains were inevitable. But maybe not. https://t.co/Y27BBo9krH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Basic, earnest questions: --is it problematic for Biden to meet his son's business partner in 2017, after leaving office? --is this business venture allegedly corrupt or inappropriate? --did this business venture actually happen? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've been quite busy with these polls, but I think I still follow this stuff more closely than the typical voter and I would say that I simply do not understand the basics of this story yet https://t.co/BS4u5h94cH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In this case I do, but a lot of the time we wrap up interview the night before publication and turn it around in the AM https://t.co/c7021eNmuX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(this is from the MT poll today) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And here's an entirely different category: terminating interviews with people who refuse to answer questions. I like the transparency, even if it's not our approach https://t.co/7sV2z2BN1E — PolitiTweet.org