Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 22 22:16:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And worth noting that I'm not at all adjusting for the size of these various states, so Montana is getting 2x the weight of Florida, for example — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And one last cut (again, pooling all states / data) All RVs: Biden 46, Trump 42 Our results: Biden 47, Trump 43 Validated 2018 voters: Biden 48, Trump 42 Validated 2016 voters: Biden 46, Trump 43 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All that said, this actually does make me feel pretty ok about the prospect of high turnout. If, like us, you've already baked the '18/20 Dem primary vote into your turnout model, then I think the new voters from there are probably pretty even — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 22, 2020 Hibernated