Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

GOP has gained an average of 3 points in post-Labor Day Senate polls, compared to pre-Labor Day polls by the same pollster. That's similar to when I last wrote about this, but now it's clearer that the GOP's gained in at least PA and probably NV too https://t.co/0h3nFM4zdO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: Two-party new voter registration trends of Hispanics in Florida, from 2013 to mid-2022. https://t.co/SIh5P8KYOt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is also this weird twist where there's like a 30% chance that the GOP actually already has another TD, unbeknownst to us, due to the scorekeepers being unable to see what goes on in the white, working class part of the field — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well the GOP offense is exceptionally prone to turn overs. But their defense is very solid and the Democratic offense is quite inefficient, hobbled by a lot of inflation/salary cap issues this season https://t.co/dX75FgbQsD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/Cw2XsAgVFK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

but from my point of view, this is a case where it's worth turning on a game that i didn't originally think was worth watching. yeah the gop is up a FG and they have the ball at the start of the 4th, but this is a game to follow — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

but if you turn off a close football game once the initially favored team (that's stuck in an unexpected close game after the SCOTUS threw a pick-six) gets the back ball and starts driving down the field with a couple of first downs, you can turn off the house too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

but if you turn off a close football game once the initially favored team (that's stuck in an unexpected close game after the SCOTUS threw a pick-six) gets the back ball and gets a couple of first downs, you can turn off the house too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

these things aren't mutually exclusive. the house is more interesting and competitive than usually credited; there are a lot of signs the race is trending GOP. https://t.co/G3EByy2xNV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a ton of generic ballot polls over the last two weeks, but the signs of a shift are starting to add up https://t.co/T8qrQlFzdt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not a ton of generic ballot polls over the last two weeks, but the signs of at shift are starting on the generic are starting to add up https://t.co/QdzrtXj7HG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK if @fivethirtyeight takes requests like a radio station or something, but i'd be curious to see the good ole' House 'nowcast'. It wouldn't surprise me if Dems were ahead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

you can sign up to get this newsletter in your inbox -- won't be posting these on twitter forever https://t.co/vfLG2cPxwD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

ft. a @Redistrict guess on how many districts the D/Rs would lead if we had robust polling averages of every race, as we do in the Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's time to take the House seriously, if you weren't already (even if the GOP is still favored) https://t.co/uQFtO5quU3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: A fun reminder that models are only as good as the algorithms humans write and the data fed into them. https://t.co/VrU5gBj… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A consistent story among the major surveys/oversamples of Latino RVs over the last few months. Democrats ahead comfortably -- around 2020-levels -- but well beneath their traditional benchmarks Pew: 53-28, NYT/Siena: 56-32 NBC: 54-33 https://t.co/GXE5ercXRS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ProspectInsider: Now, let's get down to business with this Mets-Braves series: FRI: deGrom vs Fried SAT: Scherzer vs. Wright (FOX) SUN… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris you actually do disagree with this in your thread, even if you don't realize it. you'd be right if you believed that the 'popular vote margin needed by democrats' was only a function of the presidential vote in a district. but it's not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris a mean-median gap underpinned by a 3 v 11 seat edge is just much more vulnerable to the idiosyncrasies of 40 districts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it is relevant to your narrower point about whether it's better to have a shift of .2 pts in the median district v. shifting 8 districts from right to left of the national vote. it increases the vulnerability of the GOP advantage to these phenomena — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris it is relevant to your narrower point about whether you care more about a shift of .2 pts or whatever in the median district v. shifting 8 districts from right to left of the national vote. it greatly increases the vulnerability of the GOP advantage to the phenomena you cite — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Senate is your sort of IRL example of how the number of races easily makes a 'structural edge' flimsy. In some ways, it's a stronger edge than the House! But it's three races -- nominate Masters, Oz and Walker and suddenly who cares — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think it is also possible -- though IDK, they can weigh in -- that 538 aggressiveness about fundraising metrics helps Democrats in a number of key districts? That's what they say in the Senate, at least — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is mainly because of their handling of uncontested races, which are two-to-one R. That said, this kind of thing is also quite sensitive to turnout in safe D/R districts, etc https://t.co/hxdUVHOTVE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And very minor shifts in turnout in blue CDs /individual races would be sufficient to make the Democrats favored to win without the popular vote in this model — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the median vote share was moved to the national average (ie: shift MI08, OH13, NJ07 to d+4.5)... the Democrats still wouldn't be favored. What would have 2x that effect? Moving 10 D+6 to D+4.5 CDs to D+2.2. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you want to see why the size of the bias in seats is relevant, just look at the The Economist model. Democrats currently at a 50.1 to 49.9 tie in the popular vote, favored to win 214, and the favorite *in* an outright majority of districts. Very fair https://t.co/y8vIc57R8C — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS similarly, if four dems hadn't retired maybe that would be enough. and so on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ThePlumLineGS take OH-9 today. if that's lean D and there are three other races out there like it, where stop the steal GOPers blow it in key races, now it's the Dems with the edge translating popular votes to seats — PolitiTweet.org