Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 8, 2022

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Fri Sep 30 14:46:53 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And very minor shifts in turnout in blue CDs /individual races would be sufficient to make the Democrats favored to win without the popular vote in this model — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 30, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the median vote share was moved to the national average (ie: shift MI08, OH13, NJ07 to d+4.5)... the Democrats still wouldn't be favored. What would have 2x that effect? Moving 10 D+6 to D+4.5 CDs to D+2.2. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 30, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is mainly because of their handling of uncontested races, which are two-to-one R. That said, this kind of thing is also quite sensitive to turnout in safe D/R districts, etc https://t.co/hxdUVHOTVE — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Do you know why 538 says that if Ds win the generic ballot they most likely win the house? Is their math… https://t.co/au6JfxrqHO

Posted Sept. 30, 2022